BYD - Calls Active, Skew Turns on Short Stock Interest

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Dec 3, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    BYD is trading $9.73, up 5.8% with IV30™ up 11.5%. The <a href="http://www.livevol.com/">LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary</a> is <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">in the article</a>.

    <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/byd_summary.gif" />

    On Nov. 15th Bloomberg released a list of the stocks with "TOP 25 INCREASES IN SHORT INTEREST VS FLOAT." BYD was on it, with 31.80% total short interest as of that date.

    The company has traded 7,800 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 1,670. Calls have traded on a 38:1 ratio to puts, with the Jan 10 calls trading more than 5,700x. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">in the article</a>).

    The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). The orders look like purchases, note that Jan vol is up 7 points while Dec is up 5.2 and Mar is up 1.6.

    The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month.

    We can see the upside skew is bid for both the front two months. The call buying order flow has pushed vol.

    Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">in the article</a>. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

    <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/byd_charts.gif" width="600" />

    We can see how the IV30™ is just now crossing passed the HV20™ and HV180™. Or, in English, the short term implied has passed the short-term realized vol and the long-term realized.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    <b>Follow Live Trades and Order Flow on Twitter: @Livevol_Pro</b>

    Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here:
    <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html">http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/12/byd.html</a>

    Legal Stuff:
    <a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html">http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html</a>
     
  2. whats your point beyond showing what everyone else can see in the market. Everyone can monitor changes in realized vol after the fact, and everyone can look at the options and see that implieds have been bid up. So what? What value did your site add especially to someone who is actually taking risk before the fact and not after? Dont get me wrong, its part of the homework to analyze what happened in the market but other than that I dont see how your site adds any additional value. Just wanted to point this out to newbies to question anything that is commercially offered, if this guy derived any value from this analysis he would still be a floor trader and not a vendor running a database of realized and implied vols. Just my 2 cents
     
  3. and the fact that you open new threads for each of your "analysis" makes me wonder whether you even yourself see any value in the service you are selling. Makes it very hard to track your past calls, is it intended or do you forget that you posted before?
     
  4. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    Hey guys, thanks for the responses.

    I wrote a little ditty on some active calls, is that <i>not</i> appropriate? I guess I could have posted a quick one-liner rather than a couple paragraphs... Is that the problem? Seems like this place in general has a kind of negative feedback loop.
     
  5. snakeoil salesmen know how to spin their stories. I asked a simple question which is what value you think you add with your "analysis". And what value your platform provides other than a look back at what happened in the past. Thats all, dont take it too hard, was a simple question.

     
  6. I don't see any harm in what Live_vol does here. There aren't that many useful option threads really sometimes anyway. It's not like it fills up the thread count and noone else can post or anything.

    Everyone doesn't always notice things happening in a stock. Live_vol seems to try point out stocks that for one reason or another all of the sudden have a lot of action, which often rises IV therefore making opportunities to sell IV, or try trade based on what is going on.

    As far as tracking his calls, it wouldn't be that hard if a person wanted to to make a small spreadsheet with the stocks the Live_Vol mentions and see what happens with them. I think he doesn't track them because in many cases he offers several ideas of how to trade it, and as he says they are just ideas not recommendations.

    JJacksET4
     
  7. but isnt performance all it counts. If I tell my boss I dont know what my performance looks like because I track too many ideas and overtrade he would spit in my face and fire me. Someone who does not have anything to show for how ideas or products, others are supposed to pay for, perform then thats worth nothing, not even the paper it is written on. I have no respect for a product that offers nothing for the future, simple as that. A trader who is unable to write or come up with a screen that shows stocks of change realized vols and options with changed implieds should never consider a career in options, whether self-employed or salaried. People who are lazy will not make money in this industry anyway, I dont worry about those. I just warn newbies of services that dont add any value or up their learning curve.

     
  8. While I appreciate the effort you put into posting these trading situations, I haven't seen much in them that I could use. Perhaps my threshold for attractiveness is higher than yours.

    For example, for calendars, you scan for back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. Now if you bumped that up to 15 and got hits, I'd be a lot more interested.
     
  9. That is what I pointed out earlier. I prefer percentage is used vs absoluate points. i.e. even for 15 pts differences, 145 vs 130 is not that big difference while 145 vs 100 (a 30% difference) is. So those posts will be more useful if they can provide:

    1. Select an underlying that has at least 30% differences between front/back month IV.
    2. Historical IV.
    3. Front month IV's jump in percentage term and current back month IV.

    Let's say we have a stock that has historical IV at 30 with front IV at 35, back at 31.

    One day, the front IV jump 30% to 46 while back IV jump 10% to 34. I want to have this stock selected and those # provided.

    That will be a very valuable info that can be acted upon.