I agree with you over the long term, falling Crude should be very good for the economy and stocks. But in the short term, falling Crude does hurt the indexes as a whole
it's all depends on how you define those terms. for the purpose of this thread "oversold" is certainly not meant a level of some indicator from stockcharts.com.
Well, because economic figures are about the prior month it takes (obviously) as input the prior month's crude prices and you can clearly see some correlation between the rate of change in crude prices and things like the surprise index (which itself correlates reasonably well with stock indices). So I think you may overestimate how long-term this crude oil effect really is. It's just now getting back to levels it was at when everything was fine and dandy so I expect some improvement in this and next month's figures and muchos improvement in the figures over July, unless crude turns northwards again but I doubt that will really happen.
What is the likelihood of a gapup tomorrow morning? I am thinking that eur/usd would rise. Last time I checked it was around 1.4293. It would be interesting if it clears 1.4343, as one might be able to found out if buyers would show up. It seems to me that Asia and Europe did not understand Friday price action in USA. Maybe the next trading session in both places would make them reach a different conclusion than their today's conclusion. The Japanese seem to have however gotten a different point from last Friday.
Breakout in e/u, and the ETF stocks in the aftermarket are calm E/U at 1.4383 now after breaking the 4343. Maybe the profitable longs are now saying something like "Maybe I should be taking my e/u profits while they are there!"
EURUSD and USD reverts to neutral as daily/weekly charts exert their influence once again. As mentioned, when USD rally does gain momentum it's likely to be a rapid and substantial move. http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
As mentioned: 1. Gapup this morning. 2. Asia and Europe rallied. I looked at the QQQ dividend. It seems to be 3 to 4 times what it was around 2007.
Yesterday June 20th was the lowest volume trading day of the month. About 5.82 Billion shares traded hands while the average is about 7.89 Billion, today volume is very light again on this upside!
So they may be working on the stops today then? update: they just cleared (for qqq) 54.50. Stops seem to have been hit. Would they now buy the retreats? QQQ now at 54.74. How is the volume doing? Should it not be back now that price has moved up?
3:37PM (QQQ): Is the Fed-news selling done? QQQ at ~ the day's low + 0.01 3:55PM: It went a bit lower. I have a feeling this might be a trap for bears. What do you think guys?