Don't come back, if that's how you want to leave it, Talon. You are wrong, and what you have is my opinion about the statistics. Having analyzed thousands of systems, I know what I'm looking at. Chicago is a possibility, but I guarantee never to NYC. I don't believe in paying $5k a month rent just to live. I find if I get the opportunity with these investors, I need a couple good years, but it wouldn't stop there. The question "What would you do with a million dollars?", I answer as "I'd invest, and turn it into a billion." So I am doing what I'm passionate about, and whether you want to pay attention to me is up to you. You certainly don't have to. I'm not sure what you were expecting about what I'd say as it relates to these profit distributions. I don't give free advertising. I was only offering my opinion. I guess you were expecting more. The calculations and the difference between excel and STATA are very obvious now. Lastly, you won't stick around for the fundamental data regression? It's got a 90+% R-squared? If you don't, that's fine. I'm not sure I'll have time to get to it before the end of this week anyway. Good luck, Talon.
You have an accomplished trader here, trying to provide you with sound advice... and you backstab him with all that disrespect... Anyways... go on with your thread. Go help all your clients lose money and keep living in a small pond. Good luck, Bowo.
He did it first, and it doesn't surprise me. I wouldn't move, because I've chosen to have my life in Kansas City with my wife. Presuming to tell me what to do to the point that you think giving me advice means I should move is quite offensive, and I do not accept that. My clients are up 28.6% to the S&P's 25% in the last year. They've made plenty of money. Several clients have made money from the market highs, and the other more conservative accounts have kept pace with the S&P and beat their benchmarks. Anyway.
Well, it's a shame more immature posters need to ruin constructive dialogue. Telling me I should move is stupid, first off, and offensive. KC is a huge financial services hub. I don't need to live in cities with 5x the living expenses to conduct my business. Buffett felt that way about NYC, and I do, too. Anyone ever hear of Tradebot? How about American Century? They're in Kansas City, and DST Systems <i>is the mutual fund industry.</i>
Last night we were as close to an overbought level as you could get without breaching it. I tweaked variables on the fly to see how low I could set some of the thresholds to induce a trade today, and the levels at which trades would have been triggered last night for today had worse results, so I did not take the trade. But, say I had? QID opened at 20.35, which is most likely my entry point if I had taken a trade. Tonight we're around 20.45, so I don't miss that dime of profit one bit, because hearing that the Fed's decision is tomorrow, depending on the language, I see a rally coming from that. If we go down, it'll be disappointing, but I think a more likely up 2.5% move will happen off the Fed's statements, most likely indicating a turn around in the report. I expect a hint of tightening, but the Fed Balance sheet needs to be lightened up to remove some excess liquidity in the system. I believe we'll have another couple quarters at near zero to a quarter, and start to see a possible 50 basis point rise to 0.5%, followed by another 50 basis point rise in the last two quarters of 2010 to end at 1% by FY2011, respectively.
I misjudged you. You're a kid with no real experience... you don't even have basic math skills... so there's really no point in further attempts at discussion with you. It's a clear waste of my time, and is far off-topic for this thread, which is clearly supposed to be about how great you are. So... carry on. Your "luck coefficient" kind of misses the point... this S&P add / delete system gets "lucky" like that year after year, and there's a substantial body of academic work that supports the trade as well. You have decided not to learn and not to improve yourself... why would you when you're already the best? Just do me a huge favor... think of me in 2-3 years when you realize your models don't work. Have fun BoWo. Sorry I overestimated you and disrupted your thread.
just in case people don't see what you post in my thread... look at this: This is pure bullshit, spoken by someone who has bought all of their models with money they already had, and by one that does not appear to have spoken constructively about any system or process they have designed himself. You buy and scam newbie traders into providing your models, and that sort of game does not surprise me the least from someone in downtown Manhattan. So, denying mean reversion in datasets is so laughable, it doesn't require a response. ===================== 1. I have never bought a model from anyone. I started trading with far less than 10K so I had no money to buy stuff with. I don't hire experienced traders -- the people working with me learn a basic toolset from me and get guidance and direction from me along the development process until they can stand on their own. What you have posted here is a lie without any basis. You have no reason to say this except your feelings are hurt and you can't think of anything intelligent to say. 2. Two of the three systems I posted are mean reversion systems, so again I'm confused about what you think you're saying.... but you're a confused boy most of the time, aren't you?
Oops... no need to get your feelings hurt. I'm sure you can get a nice back office in the mutual fund industry. I thought you wanted to be a trader. My mistake clearly.
Oh, of course, you must be doing this out of the goodness of your heart. Give me a break, Talon. I know exactly why you don't hire experienced traders: <b>Because they'd know you're just trying to steal the next big idea.</b> You'll get more of what you want from a quant, or someone with my credentials. Since you insist on hiring economically and financially illiterate personell, I don't even know what to say to that. It's just stupid. Do me a favor, and hire an MIT Grad student when you get the chance. Cut 5 trainees for this one student, and I'm sure you'll get everything you wanted: a model, and most likely more money. Telling this story is quite abhorrent. I don't believe for a second that you're doing this as a service. Not one bit, and, again, there's a reason you don't hire experienced traders: <b>It's because they know you're job is a scam.</b> Per 1) No, that is what you do. Per 2) and as it relates to the moronic comment above: <b>I'm everything I want to be. An RIA Rep working independently for myself. Every position I've interviewed for I didn't really want, because it would mean giving up my business, which I'm not going to do.</b> You're wrong if you insist I don't know how to do math. I know up to differential equations, which is more than I'll ever need. Since you continue to perpetuate this idea that I don't know what a pairs model is, you only dig yourself into a deeper hole. Each system you've described I don't find anything original in. S&P add drop obviously lifted from literature, and the model from your trainee becomes yours after they find what works, <i>so, yes, you are buying trainees to build new models for you.</i>
BoWo, I realize this post was designed to be inflammatory, but I want you to know I'm not upset at you. You're obviously doing the best you can with what limited resources you have... you're living proof that you don't have to be smart or literate to post on the internet. Congrats. I have hired PhD's from schools like MIT. I do not hire people as a service. If I said something that made you think that, I am sorry. (If you just misunderstood... you misunderstand a lot of things so that's also to be expected.) I hire people because I find it exciting to work with intelligent people and bounce ideas around. The QID/QLD pairs idea is your ONE trading idea... I had five trading ideas before I had completed my morning bowel movement... a lot of trading is having ideas, bouncing it around and finding that most dont work. Your error comes in being inflexible and unwilling to consider other perspectives. The market is a strict master and the market will teach you, but it will be a severe cost... it would have been easier for you to listen to people with more experience than you... but your personality doesn't let you learn that way. It's ok... you are doing the best you can with what you have been given. I do specifically want to respond to this: "You'll get more of what you want from a quant, or someone with my credentials. " You have no credentials Bo. You have a degree from a third rate school in the middle of nowhere and you have a job that anyone who can read and write can get. You have written some confused and convoluted posts on the internet and have played at developing some trading systems (scripts? lol). You have no P&L record, no education and don't even understand basic math... and you clearly have some personality issues. You have no credentials BoWo. The market will teach you what I cannot. (By the way, when people question your business you cried and threatened legal action. LOL. You just make me laugh. I would feel sorry for you if I wasn't actually laughing.)