No, my indication of where the market should move is based on the fact that all of the news reports were "positive surprises" with numbers far above consensus views. That implies that the numbers and their positive economic implications <b>were not priced in!</b> Therefore, we should go higher. Stupid, as I would say, but there's a lot more than blanket generalized statement behind my remark, and any amount of reading into my background would tell you I don't just say that to be saying it.
It's not stupid all the time. If I see a piece of data that insiders know about that I won't know about till it's released, then it becomes a smart market. Till then, just as in the 2nd quarter of 2008, there was never any indication of poor economic data until after we had crashed. It's the investing public's fault that they hold professionals responsible for knowing key economic data before it is released. You can only do so much, and we were well off our highs before there was even a negative quarter in GDP.
QLD Projection: 53.9754494216416 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121 QLD Projection: 47.6947276722301 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121 QLD Projection: 49.042856888544 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121 Looks like the second QLD value is starting to point toward a lower market.
QLD Projection: 51.3069430424617 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242 QLD Projection: 47.0643640691584 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242 QLD Projection: 48.1874285016741 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242 Big moves downward for the predicted values. Certainly would expect to see more movement down, but it looks like CSCO could reverse that at the moment. Back into a fair value range, and I was out of QLD at 48.94 on the open.
8,346,733 views +1 QLD Projection: 45.0720878852593 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332 QLD Projection: 48.7389088023792 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332 QLD Projection: 48.2794281369164 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332 Started Pairs Trading QID QLD 2.0 on a good note. Got some subs, and haven't done squat with Cash Cow for a long time. Probably won't be renewing Cash Cow.
I believe the stupid market has turned to a smart one. Might be time to start selling short. I have no signals, though, and if you didn't notice, we are near our 52 week highs.
I should point out that I was absolutely right about the market being stupid on that day. As I said, it's not stupid all the time. The past 7 trading days have brought us back to where we should be. I think we're going a little bit higher before the next pullback.
This quote was from 11/2 in the evening at 7:14 pm. The market got much smarter while I was on vacation in Chicago. I think we have a percent or so to go before being overvalued. Fairly valued currently, so no position either way is required.