BWolinsky Trading

Possibly, I'm thinking about not renewing the system when it comes due in a couple months, and starting a new one.

 

This was the original post that was sufficiently enticing enough to garner institutional interest, so I would say that the improved version with these new results is an excellent upgrade.

 

These would be pretty close to the most current results I have.

This would be the trades list for that backtest; try to pay more attention to the entries and exits and the percentage profits. The real reason that you see on c2 my average loss is so much greater than my average profit isn't that they are so much greater than my winners, than that by the time I'd doubled I'd started to take losers, but these weren't any bigger than the percentage profits. They just happened to be larger on an absolute basis because I had more capital later than when I had started.
Position Symbol Shares Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar
Long QLD 2,712 9/7/2006 70.4 9/15/2006 81.59 15.89 30,341.05 6 5,056.84
Long QLD 3,292 10/3/2006 75.3 10/5/2006 80.25 6.57 16,279.39 2 8,139.69
Long QLD 3,372 10/25/2006 83.43 10/27/2006 84.83 1.68 4,716.95 2 2,358.47
Long QLD 3,483 10/30/2006 83.3 11/1/2006 85.5 2.64 7,646.59 2 3,823.29
Long QLD 3,695 11/2/2006 82.4 11/7/2006 84.8 2.91 8,852.01 3 2,950.67
Long QID 6,148 11/15/2006 52.5 11/20/2006 52.09 -0.79 -2,536.68 3 -845.56
Long QLD 3,582 11/28/2006 88 11/30/2006 90.4 2.72 8,580.81 2 4,290.40
Long QLD 3,758 12/4/2006 89.18 12/6/2006 90.52 1.5 5,018.96 2 2,509.48
Long QLD 3,876 12/8/2006 88.05 12/12/2006 89.3 1.41 4,817.35 2 2,408.67
Long QID 6,835 12/18/2006 51.32 12/19/2006 53.3 3.85 13,517.30 1 13,517.30
Long QID 7,435 1/11/2007 50.9 1/24/2007 52.44 3.03 11,454.72 8 1,431.84
Long QID 7,765 2/8/2007 51.99 2/12/2007 53.15 2.23 8,991.40 2 4,495.70
Long QID 8,333 2/22/2007 49.9 3/5/2007 57.83 15.9 66,098.87 7 9,442.70
Long QID 10,455 3/22/2007 52.14 3/26/2007 52.7 1.07 5,838.81 2 2,919.41
Long QID 10,989 4/17/2007 50.45 4/24/2007 49.53 -1.83 -10,125.90 5 -2,025.18
Long QLD 5,951 5/11/2007 90.15 5/14/2007 91.39 1.37 7,370.40 1 7,370.40
Long QLD 6,055 5/15/2007 90.87 5/24/2007 92.15 1.41 7,734.39 7 1,104.91
Long QID 12,266 6/1/2007 45.9 6/4/2007 46.54 1.39 7,834.23 1 7,834.23
Long QLD 6,469 6/8/2007 90.08 6/12/2007 90.78 0.77 4,512.28 2 2,256.14
Long QID 13,240 7/5/2007 44.47 7/11/2007 44.42 -0.12 -678.04 4 -169.51
Long QLD 5,632 7/24/2007 102.79 7/26/2007 97.52 -5.13 -29,685.32 2 -14,842.66
Long QLD 5,649 8/1/2007 93.33 8/3/2007 95.47 2.29 12,073.98 2 6,036.99
Long QID 12,092 8/23/2007 45.54 8/24/2007 46.36 1.8 9,899.44 1 9,899.44
Long QID 13,680 9/5/2007 42.32 9/11/2007 43.61 3.05 17,677.71 4 4,419.43
Long QLD 6,247 9/18/2007 98.5 10/8/2007 114.16 15.9 97,821.38 14 6,987.24
Long QLD 7,007 10/12/2007 113.95 10/15/2007 115.56 1.41 11,282.11 1 11,282.11
Long QLD 7,114 10/16/2007 113.45 10/18/2007 115.33 1.65 13,352.66 2 6,676.33
Long QLD 7,529 10/22/2007 110.18 10/24/2007 117.01 6.2 51,407.08 2 25,703.54
Long QID 27,643 11/1/2007 34.4 11/9/2007 39.95 16.13 153,402.63 6 25,567.10
Long QID 32,385 11/29/2007 38.4 12/4/2007 39.7 3.38 42,084.48 3 14,028.16
Long QLD 12,730 12/17/2007 102.94 12/18/2007 98.2 -4.6 -60,295.57 1 -60,295.57
Long QID 24,621 1/25/2008 46.91 1/30/2008 49.35 5.2 60,103.54 3 20,034.51
Long QID 26,872 2/1/2008 47.68 2/7/2008 55.26 15.9 203,703.84 4 50,925.96
Long QID 34,837 2/14/2008 48.89 2/19/2008 49.77 1.8 30,640.60 2 15,320.30
Long QID 35,142 2/27/2008 51.23 2/29/2008 51.57 0.66 11,932.29 2 5,966.14
Long QLD 26,022 3/3/2008 68.17 3/6/2008 68.65 0.7 12,474.65 3 4,158.22
Long QLD 27,641 3/7/2008 64.9 3/12/2008 66.88 3.05 54,652.33 3 18,217.44
Long QID 39,818 3/25/2008 47.81 3/28/2008 48.82 2.11 40,168.21 3 13,389.41
Long QLD 26,920 4/10/2008 73.82 4/11/2008 74.02 0.27 5,367.92 1 5,367.92
Long QLD 27,930 4/14/2008 71.39 4/17/2008 75.21 5.35 106,676.59 3 35,558.86
Long QLD 26,246 5/8/2008 84.42 5/13/2008 87.46 3.6 79,771.87 3 26,590.62
Long QLD 26,825 5/21/2008 88.06 5/22/2008 84.01 -4.6 -108,677.59 1 -108,677.59
Long QLD 25,394 6/11/2008 84.62 6/12/2008 80.73 -4.6 -98,862.58 1 -98,862.58
Long QLD 27,446 7/3/2008 72.46 7/9/2008 73.84 1.9 37,870.50 3 12,623.50
Long QID 45,762 7/17/2008 43.94 7/21/2008 44.68 1.69 33,957.76 2 16,978.88
Long QID 47,131 7/28/2008 44.44 7/29/2008 45.18 1.67 34,974.11 1 34,974.11
Long QID 49,637 7/31/2008 44.6 8/1/2008 43.82 -1.75 -38,732.80 1 -38,732.80
Long QLD 29,741 8/5/2008 71.64 8/14/2008 83.03 15.9 338,756.66 7 48,393.81
Long QLD 35,465 8/22/2008 78.51 9/2/2008 74.9 -4.6 -128,096.35 6 -21,349.39
Long QID 51,351 9/22/2008 47.97 9/23/2008 50.31 4.87 120,011.75 1 120,011.75
Long QID 42,368 10/31/2008 66.21 11/3/2008 63.16 -4.6 -129,054.45 1 -129,054.45
Long QID 41,113 11/5/2008 61.56 11/6/2008 71.35 15.9 402,399.53 1 402,399.53
Long QLD 123,343 11/13/2008 26.19 11/14/2008 28.1 7.29 235,347.03 1 235,347.03
Long QID 50,647 11/28/2008 74.3 12/2/2008 82.72 11.33 426,431.66 2 213,215.83
Long QLD 172,932 12/23/2008 26.25 12/29/2008 24.9 -5.13 -232,663.52 3 -77,554.51
Long QLD 161,413 12/30/2008 25.59 1/5/2009 29.66 15.9 656,742.75 3 218,914.25
Long QID 102,022 1/6/2009 51.49 1/8/2009 54.7 6.23 327,474.53 2 163,737.27
Long QLD 225,230 1/13/2009 26.51 1/14/2009 25.05 -5.49 -327,983.81 1 -327,983.81
Long QLD 214,585 1/15/2009 24.75 1/16/2009 25.25 2.02 107,019.05 1 107,019.05
Long QLD 233,456 1/21/2009 24.4 1/22/2009 24.53 0.53 30,333.53 1 30,333.53
Long QID 105,371 1/29/2009 54.58 1/30/2009 55.07 0.9 51,615.57 1 51,615.57
Long QID 115,512 2/9/2009 49.31 2/11/2009 52.53 6.53 371,932.34 2 185,966.17
Long QLD 250,617 2/18/2009 25.89 2/20/2009 24.21 -6.49 -421,052.63 2 -210,526.31
Long QLD 242,115 2/24/2009 23.41 2/25/2009 24.1 2.95 167,091.97 1 167,091.97
Long QID 95,462 3/11/2009 60.72 3/12/2009 57.61 -5.13 -297,084.22 1 -297,084.22
Long QLD 202,870 3/31/2009 26.95 4/7/2009 29.08 7.9 431,813.31 5 86,362.66
Long QLD 215,046 4/8/2009 29.4 4/14/2009 30.7 4.44 280,619.09 3 93,539.70
Long QLD 222,852 4/21/2009 29.95 4/22/2009 30.59 2.13 142,163.27 1 142,163.27
Long QLD 204,280 5/12/2009 34.42 5/13/2009 32.83 -4.62 -324,820.44 1 -324,820.44
Long QID 197,429 6/2/2009 32.71 6/4/2009 32.32 -1.19 -77,013.19 2 -38,506.59
Long QLD 167,846 6/16/2009 37.48 6/22/2009 35.76 -4.6 -289,395.78 4 -72,348.95
Long QLD 159,445 6/23/2009 35.77 6/25/2009 36.11 0.95 54,195.32 2 27,097.66
Long QID 187,092 7/16/2009 31.12 7/20/2009 29.45 -5.37 -312,459.66 2 -156,229.83
Long QLD 114,988 8/11/2009 44.53 8/13/2009 45.13 1.34 68,677.91 2 34,338.95
Long QLD 118,022 8/17/2009 43.55 8/21/2009 45.78 5.12 263,173.00 4 65,793.25
Long QLD 131,898 9/2/2009 43.68 9/4/2009 44.74 2.43 139,796.06 2 69,898.03
Long QID 253,276 9/11/2009 23.94 9/14/2009 24.28 1.42 86,097.88 1 86,097.88
Long QLD 123,521 9/25/2009 49.88 9/29/2009 50.74 1.73 106,730.92 2 53,365.46
Long QLD 126,647 9/30/2009 51.33 10/1/2009 48.7 -5.13 -333,181.31 1 -333,181.31
Long QLD 121,071 10/2/2009 47.34 Open Open 5.91 338,990.72 3 112,996.91

And, unlike other people, I'm not afraid to show a trades list, because the likelihood that someone could reverse engineer this system is impossible. The program is 25 pages long in Word, at 11 point font, and has approximately 605 lines with several key lines being very long stretching out past two pages.

Jack Hershey's system is 9 pages total with 118 lines. That system at it's core is available, and could possibly be reverse engineered from the legacy threads, only works in WL, though, so considering there's a whopping 3 reviews of Active Trader Pro, including one of mine, I doubt there's too many people paying attention to it.

 

Is this the same system you are trading on Covestor?

 

Yes, and, if you'll notice, the only system I've traded on Covestor.

 

I haven’t had the time to read all 464 replies to this thread so maybe you can save me some reading.

Your system claims

Covestor shows:
Annualized Gain % -0.61%

However had you bought QLD in April and held you would have an Annualized Gain of about 66%.

If you were managing my money I’d like an explanation.

 

My system doesn't hold for that long. Buy and hold in QLD is not an optimal strategy, and you can have a look on c2 for all the systems that tried that in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Luck would be the only factor involved in doing that. You might as well say "Well, why not buy on March 7th and hold." The market is nearly always fairly valued, in fact, fairly valued 65% of the time approximately. I only take positions when the market has gone too far away from its fair value, based on volatility, fair value predictions, and the fitness of the statistical calculations. Those conditions don't happen but 80 times since QID and QLD's inception in June 2006. I could care less what happens to either QID and QLD, because they both have had 80+% drawdowns during the time I've traded them. Most likely they will have those same drawdowns again.

 

I agree with the above and believe it is possible to take advantage of market inefficiencies.

There seems to be quite a discrepancy between back tested and actual results. Over what period of time are you looking at for the system to show positive results? Is this a system where you expect to make 90% of your money on 10% of your trades?

 

Dog, I think I'll let you be the judge. Have a look at the trades list and look at the percentages.

Here's a descending order trades list:
Position Symbol Shares Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit
Long QID 6,454 11/1/2007 34.4 11/9/2007 39.95 16.13 35,803.70
Long QLD 4,770 8/5/2008 71.64 8/14/2008 83.03 15.9 54,317.94
Long QID 6,132 11/5/2008 61.56 11/6/2008 71.35 15.9 60,004.24
Long QLD 19,112 12/30/2008 25.59 1/5/2009 29.66 15.9 77,747.09
Long QID 2,858 2/22/2007 49.9 3/5/2007 57.83 15.89 22,659.66
Long QLD 1,796 9/18/2007 98.5 10/8/2007 114.16 15.89 28,112.05
Long QID 5,367 2/1/2008 47.68 2/7/2008 55.26 15.89 40,671.87
Long QLD 1,356 9/7/2006 70.4 9/15/2006 81.59 15.88 15,162.53
Long QID 6,251 11/28/2008 74.3 12/2/2008 82.72 11.33 52,617.41
I actually exited this trade at 30.44, just prior to joining covestor, so it's unfortunate you can't see that in the results.
Long QLD 21,335 3/31/2009 26.95 4/7/2009 29.08 7.9 45,397.70
Long QLD 16,212 11/13/2008 26.19 11/14/2008 28.1 7.28 30,919.73
Long QLD 1,454 10/3/2006 75.3 10/5/2006 80.25 6.56 7,181.30
Long QID 11,710 2/9/2009 49.31 2/11/2009 52.53 6.53 37,690.17
Long QID 10,653 1/6/2009 51.49 1/8/2009 54.7 6.23 34,180.12
Long QLD 1,855 10/22/2007 110.18 10/24/2007 117.01 6.19 12,653.65
Long QLD 12,349 10/2/2009 47.34 Open Open 5.91 34,569.19
Long QLD 4,560 4/14/2008 71.39 4/17/2008 75.21 5.35 17,403.20
Long QID 5,143 1/25/2008 46.91 1/30/2008 49.35 5.2 12,542.17
Long QLD 12,562 8/17/2009 43.55 8/21/2009 45.78 5.12 27,997.25
Long QID 7,616 9/22/2008 47.97 9/23/2008 50.31 4.87 17,785.63
Long QLD 21,100 4/8/2009 29.4 4/14/2009 30.7 4.44 27,519.51
Long QID 2,549 12/18/2006 51.32 12/19/2006 53.3 3.85 5,031.02
Long QLD 4,086 5/8/2008 84.42 5/13/2008 87.46 3.6 12,405.44
Long QID 6,659 11/29/2007 38.4 12/4/2007 39.7 3.38 8,640.70
Long QID 4,048 9/5/2007 42.32 9/11/2007 43.61 3.05 5,219.68
Long QLD 4,744 3/7/2008 64.9 3/12/2008 66.88 3.04 9,366.68
Long QID 2,678 1/11/2007 50.9 1/24/2007 52.44 3.02 4,115.62
Long QLD 24,849 2/24/2009 23.41 2/25/2009 24.1 2.95 17,134.80
Long QLD 1,481 11/2/2006 82.4 11/7/2006 84.8 2.9 3,538.40
Long QLD 1,408 11/28/2006 88 11/30/2006 90.4 2.71 3,363.20
Long QLD 1,430 10/30/2006 83.3 11/1/2006 85.5 2.63 3,130.00
Long QLD 13,428 9/2/2009 43.68 9/4/2009 44.74 2.42 14,217.70
Long QLD 1,736 8/1/2007 93.33 8/3/2007 95.47 2.28 3,699.38
Long QID 2,720 2/8/2007 51.99 2/12/2007 53.15 2.22 3,139.20
Long QLD 20,989 4/21/2009 29.95 4/22/2009 30.59 2.13 13,374.95
Long QID 6,647 3/25/2008 47.81 3/28/2008 48.82 2.11 6,692.13
Long QLD 22,478 1/15/2009 24.75 1/16/2009 25.25 2.01 11,196.03
Long QLD 4,544 7/3/2008 72.46 7/9/2008 73.84 1.9 6,256.54
Long QID 3,639 8/23/2007 45.54 8/24/2007 46.36 1.79 2,967.98
Long QID 6,161 2/14/2008 48.89 2/19/2008 49.77 1.79 5,405.69
Long QLD 12,135 9/25/2009 49.88 9/29/2009 50.74 1.73 10,471.07
Long QID 7,440 7/17/2008 43.94 7/21/2008 44.68 1.68 5,507.46
Long QLD 1,406 10/25/2006 83.43 10/27/2006 84.83 1.67 1,957.47
Long QID 7,544 7/28/2008 44.44 7/29/2008 45.18 1.67 5,584.67
Long QLD 1,780 10/16/2007 113.45 10/18/2007 115.33 1.65 3,328.98
Long QLD 1,441 12/4/2006 89.18 12/6/2006 90.52 1.49 1,914.65
Long QID 25,217 9/11/2009 23.94 9/14/2009 24.28 1.42 8,557.78
Long QLD 1,777 10/12/2007 113.95 10/15/2007 115.56 1.41 2,849.24
Long QLD 1,465 12/8/2006 88.05 12/12/2006 89.3 1.4 1,810.85
Long QLD 1,825 5/15/2007 90.87 5/24/2007 92.15 1.4 2,320.00
Long QID 3,649 6/1/2007 45.9 6/4/2007 46.54 1.38 2,319.36
Long QLD 1,817 5/11/2007 90.15 5/14/2007 91.39 1.37 2,239.27
Long QLD 12,393 8/11/2009 44.53 8/13/2009 45.13 1.34 7,387.59
Long QID 3,168 3/22/2007 52.14 3/26/2007 52.7 1.06 1,758.08
Long QLD 16,392 6/23/2009 35.77 6/25/2009 36.11 0.95 5,557.28
Long QID 10,776 1/29/2009 54.58 1/30/2009 55.07 0.9 5,264.22
Long QLD 1,899 6/8/2007 90.08 6/12/2007 90.78 0.77 1,313.29
Long QLD 4,496 3/3/2008 68.17 3/6/2008 68.65 0.7 2,142.10
Long QID 6,111 2/27/2008 51.23 2/29/2008 51.57 0.66 2,061.74
Long QLD 24,001 1/21/2009 24.4 1/22/2009 24.53 0.53 3,104.16
Long QLD 4,406 4/10/2008 73.82 4/11/2008 74.02 0.27 865.19
Long QID 3,858 7/5/2007 44.47 7/11/2007 44.42 -0.12 -208.91
Long QID 2,398 11/15/2006 52.5 11/20/2006 52.09 -0.79 -999.18
Long QID 19,123 6/2/2009 32.71 6/4/2009 32.32 -1.19 -7,473.96
Long QID 7,822 7/31/2008 44.6 8/1/2008 43.82 -1.75 -6,117.15
Long QID 3,296 4/17/2007 50.45 4/24/2007 49.53 -1.83 -3,048.33
Long QLD 4,041 5/21/2008 88.06 5/22/2008 84.01 -4.6 -16,385.12
Long QLD 4,010 6/11/2008 84.62 6/12/2008 80.73 -4.6 -15,624.99
Long QLD 5,014 8/22/2008 78.51 9/2/2008 74.9 -4.6 -18,123.85
Long QID 6,019 10/31/2008 66.21 11/3/2008 63.16 -4.6 -18,347.82
Long QLD 16,450 6/16/2009 37.48 6/22/2009 35.76 -4.6 -28,377.10
Long QLD 2,537 12/17/2007 102.94 12/18/2007 98.2 -4.61 -12,029.30
Long QLD 18,864 5/12/2009 34.42 5/13/2009 32.83 -4.62 -30,009.69
Long QLD 1,643 7/24/2007 102.79 7/26/2007 97.52 -5.13 -8,671.31
Long QLD 19,413 12/23/2008 26.25 12/29/2008 24.9 -5.13 -26,132.54
The biggest thing I notice is that nearly all of the large drawdowns happened in 2009, so if you wanted a reason why the performance has not been as good in 09, you can see it here.

Long QID 9,532 3/11/2009 60.72 3/12/2009 57.61 -5.13 -29,678.63
Long QLD 12,244 9/30/2009 51.33 10/1/2009 48.7 -5.13 -32,225.81
Long QID 19,061 7/16/2009 31.12 7/20/2009 29.45 -5.37 -31,847.87
Long QLD 22,279 1/13/2009 26.51 1/14/2009 25.05 -5.5 -32,457.48
Long QLD 23,993 2/18/2009 25.89 2/20/2009 24.21 -6.49 -40,324.25

 

I wish there was a better way to post spread sheets. I know that’s the way the board is set up but it’s tough to follow.

Do you have a record done on a per year basis?
Compare 2006, 2007, 2008 and ytd 2009.

You mentioned that biggest drawdowns were in 2009.

How does this correlate to the market trend? Has the system done better in a down market?