QLD Projection: 49.4496264531062 QLD Close: 51.5499992370605 QLD Projection: 52.5836363358931 QLD Close: 51.5499992370605 QLD Projection: 51.2888571966262 QLD Close: 51.5499992370605 Yeah, looks like QLD is going even higher. Near overbought levels, but pointing higher, so we need about a 2% move to the upside to be overbought, but, even then, I feel we'd be pointing higher still. I think we'll try to make a run for the 52 week high in QLD.
Tradingbug, I have no idea what you find so informative in these psychobabble posts. Maybe there is something I'm missing. He's said the market goes higher about two weeks ago, and now he seems to post a chart pointing down, so go figure what you think he's trying to say.
To keep it short and succinct, I am saying the market goes up and down. There is a caveat also: I am providing the timing, too. Consider how it is for traders who know the market direction and the market timing; there is a consequence. I can't reveal what it is, because it is a well kept secret.
Jack, Could you explain this a bit more? I see the market continue to rise after June 2006 until around October 2007. What am I missing that you saw (in hard chart terms, not "end of quant era" type qualitative opinion)? I do recall your audio from around that date. A related question re. the use of long term charts: on a linear chart we have already seen the BO of the Bull rtl with the infamous 666, but on a (more correct) log chart we are still within the Bull channel (starting circa mid 70s). Pragmatically, how do you reconcile this? Which is more telling in terms of knowing where we are? And how do we handle inflation? Is the market index inflation in your book?
I think I understand what Jack is saying. These "fractals" as he calls it are periods of log linear trends in prices. They can move up or down and parallel to each other at monthly, daily, and intraday timescales. The previous chart he posted was pointing down because that was the end of what he calls an x numbered fractal, forgive me for not remembering which. The thing about the "fractals" he referrs to is that they appear subjectively charted, and are only apparent after the fact through hindsight. He's mentioned it's a secret, but it doesn't appear apparent to me what prompts these shifts or ends of fractals you seem to call traverses. I can picture a chart of the S&P back to 1905 about, and see during periods of breakage of the trend, we start to go down, as he's attempting to illustrate in the log linear trend. The catch and the gotcha as I see it is that he only has 3 periods from which to draw the longer term fractals. A problem I might refer to and as many in academia refer to as degrees of freedom. If these charts are drawn as I believe they are from the traverses, I think there might be a relation between what he calls P,V, something I only think of as price and volume, but perhaps the v refers to time. Hmmm.....crazy ideas are coming to mind, but after years of coding, I'm not sure that whatever the ideal traverse length followed by a trend following fractal would really be more profitable than what I'm doing on a risk adjusted basis.
So where's the traverse? I also don't get the significance of June 2006, other than I recall just graduating and starting my career as an indpendent RIA Rep after years of trading in WL and TS. The mood was totally dependent on credit. People had seen what sub-prime could do, but the liquidity crunch woud not be felt for years when companies would collapse by being unable to sell assets they valued much more highly.
The well kept secret is that by knowing market direction and timing, a trader makes money quite easily. The secret was mentioned in a subsequent post, so I rhought I would reveal it before a misunderstanding about direction and timing occurred.
Using regular charts and technical graphics that appeared in publications at that time, it was apparent that economically speaking the situation, conditions and circumstances could not continue. As a reminder, this kind of thing was happening when inflation was vastly outrunning banking interst rates and no one knew the banks were upsidedown. The WIN program came into being and under the appointed President (who would not introduce new policy and only be a gate keeper)(Ford) at EOP, I had to deal with an alternative that was NOT a "Phoenix" type effort. This is tough to do. Turning to 2006, my commentary was like '87 to get people out of the market since, in hard chart terms, technical tests were failing. I did cantasias that were illustrated at the time. You recall the audios of those. As an example, prior to this period, I suggested to Mr Market that he pick up HOV at 10 and 20 when it was on its way to 80. It was a fun exchange since he knew I was incorrect. HOV did become a terrific short as was seen. So in hard chart terms, the sector rotation was showing that a lot of sectors were dropping like roks and what came into view was nothing as sound as the past top sectors. In various historical periods things like ValueLine and Daily charts which were mailings would have been used. As time past the 197 sectors of IBD became important. IBD's institutional set up was rented for 44,000 a year and was fact filled in terms of processed sector information that could be tested technically. I am TA oriented and NOT just a stat type person. If you do not have a continuing relative strength in what is going on then you have to look at whether there is just an anomoly. By cross checking and seeing common non continuations, then you have an "inflection". My posts spoke of these inflections at that time. I spoke of VIT today. In our regular Sunday AM session for getting the next weeks hot list we looked at a 30%'er. We noted the even harmonic created by the double tops and bottoms on the channel sides. This is a priority stock when the second double occurs because you pick off 30% in a few days X times a year. we are sure to give this stock priority for those times. the notation is when to watch it come out of DU and when to go in a little late. In 2006 a lot of things like this were not any longer clicking and specifically in a lot of sectors that were beginning to bomb. So the bull economic market was over and the overlap of the old and new was beginning. CMT's and financial advisors were asleep at the switch. The publications that carried technical charts that were best were from The Economist. There you could see that RE values, production of homes, and new and used homes sales and the feeder industries to these market sectors were having extreme out of the box relative values. An example would be like in the Club of Rome study regarding "satisfaction" the world inhabitants saw their most satisfying period of existance come to a close; it will not return. The fad of denim temporarily interrupted the introduction of synthetic fibres but denim ultimately went away. When you see interelated relative "inflections" you question their "fad" content and the public "feelings". In late JUN 2006, the "fog" began to come in from the sea. the "media" can't be expected to know what is going on. Two huge efforts, "orchestrating" and "leaking" misle these folk. You can read the brain power of this crowd here on ET by reading marketsurfer. He never has a clue as we all see. We are not talking about little girls who write in Vogue about their daddies. This is about Conde Naste proferring "Portfolio" out of Greenwich under the illusion of a gold watch and hired jet era. I don't mind paying 180 from the Dana PT Wharf to La Costa it the ride is quiet and I can read. The 30 under 30 is gone and buried too. Since mid 2006, the character of what is going on has been shifting. A Dr salary for a year is 12 hours trading if you have 50K. We are going through a change and it is very mellow for those who have immunity. Inflation isn't fun and it is important. I did the stint at EOP through one siege. It is like the incoming never stops and the quantity is way over the capacity to deal with the problems. Inflation shoiws most in the feedback loops designed to quel imbalance. I hate to say it but some are counting on inflation to ameilorate other kinds of difficulties. Personally I just have to face it that 20 dollar bills don't work in wallets anymore. I used to get sleves of 100's when I was out there operating. Traders have to be able to superimpose on their business plans these types of layers. It is defacto and carving the turns is a good way to be efective. Knowing harmonics makes doing fills in even or odd most effective. Once we start seeing cascading getting into the 50's handles range, then knowing what is what is important. I recommend steady reading and cross market analysis for looking for loose rivets. Consider the daily carryover piont of focus as very important. I do carryover on five fractal levels. Some people do not understand that thee are no gaps in markets. Markets are huge and carryovers always prevail. People who screw up opens by having a different view really flush a lot of potential profits in the garbage. Recently I have been rehearsing the gaps twice just before open. Uncertainty has to be measured and it is uncertainty that sets the "short" public sentiment. When it is very bad, then getting news just reestablishes "lees" uncertainty. Dropping the missile defense in the middle of the day was not too swift. That outside bar 7 last week was a corker for those who do not handle the non stationarity of the window very well. Its hard to say to people what is going on and get it across to them. I do feel it is important that people understand that at this time a person has to be heads up and absolutely follow the market patterns on all fractal levels. Jumping fractals does not fly at these times and thinking the an orderly fast fractal practice is going to have anomolies is senseless. I do not relate to reconciling or weighing and thinking of trade offs. I feel all the fractals in the nest of fractals are always orderly. Orderly means a lot to me. I do not figure there are anomolies; I do see compressions that squeeze things closer together and I see "accordians" that cause "waiting". The pieces always fit together and that is a consequence of the huge fabric of things. To go to the Paris Air Show and not sell anything new is quite a non event.
QLD Projection: 52.5748580932617 QLD Close: 51.9900016784668 QLD Projection: 52.7576363997026 QLD Close: 51.9900016784668 QLD Projection: 53.0158094496954 QLD Close: 51.9900016784668 Up Threshold is $ 22.3834786036467 on QID Needed a bit more of a rally to even have a shot at going short. We have moved closer to the middle of our fair value ranges, and it would appear QLD should go higher. Ergo, implying the market should head higher. QLD needs to go up at least $1 or about 2%. Might need to make that the threshold, but the volatility ranges are what they are, and the Up Threshold is approximated at $22.39 for QID. No trades in Cash Cow to report, nor obviously in PTQQS.