ROFLMAO. Magna closed your thread because you never delivered on your promises to post blotters, statements or anything else to back up your claims and the journal became a flamefest. Hopefully, newbies never lsitened to you either.
I find this vendor's thread to be humorous. I see a lot of threads that protect n00bies as well. Under two categories below any reader, expert or new, will find the 8 essentials of getting to be expert. A. Starting from scratch. There are five elements: 1. Going from the RTL (point 1) to the LTL. 2. Knowing where you are by having a price container. (annotating price and volume.) 3. Knowing the legos of trading: cycles 4. Linking the Legos to build the heirarchy of fractals. (nested fractals) 5. How movements are defined through the science of deduction. These are the drills that allow the mind to be built into a differentiated available structure. It is identical to learning to read, learning to drive a car and learning to do music. B. The scope and bounds of successful trading: 1. Having the foundation and building blocks as principles. 2. Overcoming the "riddle of induction" by having learned a deductive paradigm. 3. Completing the "Trader's Tool Box" simply using the contemporary technology to the fullest.) Thus, induction (as shown by the OP) is out. It's replacement is doing the scientific process of deduction. Also illustrated here by the OP is the dilemma that occurs when a mind becomes improperly differentiated. There is no way after a critical line in the sand is crossed, that a mind can become differentiated based on deduction after it has been filled inductively. See proud examples of inductve minds beyond this line: traderzones. trader666, market surfer, bighog, etc... etc. The major result of becoming inductively differentiated is called "repeated failure whose emotional symptoms are anxiety, fear and anger. Completing the deductive learning path leads to the measurable (use the emwave PC) coherence exemplified by support, comfort and confidence. An eight year old, in summertime looking at a market display, would have little trouble deducing how the price and volume work. Nor would a fifth grader or a fifth former. These children simply use the three operators that are designated: spatial, pattern recognition and movement. There is no time that price is not in a space, not forming a pattern or not moving. Reading, driving and music are the same. Trading is done by the expert all day long the same way he reads, drives or carries a tune. Supported, comforted and with confidence. The common denominator of all of this is doing drills. Drills are what replaces induction. Induction takes years to learn failure. Step 1. of of learning, above, is 5% a day, every day, all year long. Compound it to see how small what the OP lifted really is. On average, it takes nine minutes of your day. See what adding contracts from profits contributes to just doing step 1. This is the smallest effort a learner can make. Be an expert on the step 1. level in a few days. With 13 ES contracts this is over 2,000 dollars a day every day.
Good thing Scottd did the drills for us. 5% a day, maybe in a month, and that would suit most people. Jack, seriously, if you'd like to contribute something, perhaps going back to Scottd's thread and pouring the secret sauce on of what turned a 1000% system into 1.05^250-1 percent system in a year is. I actually agree with B1, but beyond that I've done enough quantum physics to have learned my limit of what I can push myself to understand. Differential calculus is where it stops, and we go into lala land at topology, but trading, luckily, is not topology, and the infrastructure now afforded to the common individual trader is beyond what hedge funds had available to them in the mid 90's. On the deductive line in the sand, I'm as passive aggressive as it gets, and I, too, am very amused by the thread. The point is, Jack Hershey, I would only talk about what I can test through scientific deductive logic. Your system, as it was presented, didn't have a chance in hell of producing 190,000+% profit in a year. When I saw your system as TS code, I took what was there, and a little from what spydertrader had posted and finally hit the jackpot. Boom. The Jack Hershey system everyone had waited years to see, but could never backtest or have in their hand. It reminds me of when I was 8, and had to do 100 question multiplication tests in 1 minute up to the 12's.
There are no qualifications to be able to drive or read or do music. the young person who is learning to trade could, as a fact. not have even taken geometry. The mathematical scene for doing the opposite of the induction you say you do is to simply think of a simple set of rules for how the market variables relate. These two approximately ten word statements give you the rules that the market follows. Four words establish the mathematics of the markets. This is the deductive foundation of trading. Testing it is very simple, indeed. A person who can draw two parallel lines (geometric concept) does not have to have geometry under his belt. But that person can apply the two statements (hypothesis sucessfully to volume and then price. Recently (yesterday) was a big turning point for the markets. All fractals but the bull/bear fractal came to the end of their runs (legos) about midday. This final long channel that is underway will bring to the final end the Bull retrace of the economic Bear market we are in for the foreseeable future. (for those who are precision oriented CP4 is in play, however) As you see the sub tape price movement reached its "long end point" soon after open and another sub tape short movement began and as illustraded ended with a BO of the RTL. Thus by geometry and using deduction a long sub tape trade started the day to get to a new cycle beginning. This new short sub tape cycle has the standard components and the last one ended before the RTL BO just after the P and V containers completed their gestation period to give birth to a new cycle. There are a dozen signals showing on the attached chart. Everything is binary vectors. Children are very very good at doing yes/no groups in data sets. The rules are simple to code since they are all binary. So, there is no quantum physics nor any calculus involved in dealing with the markets whose data does not include any continuous functions. without continuous functions some people turned to statistical analysis. But the market informs through facts and this is information theory at its best. There is not possibility that probabalistic information theory applies to markets. The pragmatic proof is the failure of its application by a full range of practictioners. The scientific proof is that non probabalistic information theory fits perfectly with the markets by using the null hypothesis as applied to approximately 20 words which form the hypothesis set of the market paradigm. This rules out continuous functions, probability and any mathematics other than the Boolean Algebra of non probabilistic information theory. Since the hypotheses are of like kind and their parametric measure is by measures whose units are binary vectors, the paradigm for markets (their analysis, decision making and taking timely action) is all done by finite set theory using four finite sets: monitoring finite set; analysis finite set; decision finite set and action finite set. For the trader this involves sets with few members. The decision set is tied to the trading platform; it includes: wait, hold, exit, enter and reverse. A the attachment shows, the common decision bar after bar while doing MADA is hold. This is done over and over by taking data sets relative to the containers drawn using parallel lines and volume Gaussians (hiking the mountains so to speak). Being inside the lines is a nice feeling because it means money is being made. A person can quickly realize that it is possible to at all times be inside a pair of parallel lines and making money. A twenty word hypothesis set makes it very esy to understand what being inside parallel lines means. Yes or no is an easy decision tree in a coded software program with few rules. The original cash cow you think you "lifted" and have given as the name of your knock off does not deal with price per se as most know. The hypothesis set does deal with the two variables of the market however, so here I have changed the subject to the principles of the markets. Fhe four trades of today, so far alternate as usual: long, short, long, short. each time their were a dozen signals for the reversals as anyone can see on the attached (two actions are shown one at the beginning and one at the end). Step 1. Shows as beginning on the RTL (pt 1) and going to the LTL over the course od thirteen bars an just 24 ES points. This requires a little over an hour of the day for a student who has not yet taken geometry in middle school.
QLD Projection: 46.38325514741 QLD Close: 44.0699996948242 QLD Projection: 47.6554547396573 QLD Close: 44.0699996948242 QLD Projection: 46.750476255871 QLD Close: 44.0699996948242 I would not be at all surprised to be back to these levels in a couple more days. My last trade in PTQQS was at 43.49 about and the exit was at 45.77. It's come in a bit, and that's good. We needed a breather.
There are approximately 30. Doing a hold for about 24 ES points is considered a "tradeable signal" by most. Using the margin of IB it represents over 40% of margin with two reversals (into and out of a trade cyle). They (the signals) are bunched in time around the extremes of price movement on the specifically annotated fractal. Two reversals are showing; which would you prefer to learn about first? All signals are go/no go signals where the market's decision is as they say "crystal clear". A while back I mentioned to nodoji that Donna needed about two and 1/2 hours of real time mentoring on this specific fractal. In this way she could take almost all of the 20 trades she sees daily. Version 1.3.7 of the Cash Cow, from the open did an entry on bar one a reversal short on bar 9 and a reversal long on bar 28. The Cash Cow is self annotating without the use of price. As you see the Cash Cow trades one fractal slower than the SCT which took trades on bar 1, bar 8, bar 10, bar 14, and bar 30.
What's your signal then? None of the Stochd's, either 14,1,3, or the 5 macd are pointing in any particular direction. Here's a quote, and I'll let you fill in the blanks If StochD(14,1) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume ______greater than _____________less than? _________and __________or __________separate logic gate If StochD(14,1) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume ______greater than _____________less than?_______value _________and __________or __________separate logic gate If StochD(14,1) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume ______greater than _____________less than?_______value _________and __________or __________separate logic gate If StochD(14,1) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll _________and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume ______greater than _____________less than?_______value _________and __________or __________separate logic gate ________(HersheyStochD)[Bar] - SMA(Bar, HersheyStochD, 6))______greater than _____________less than _______value That about covers most of your system. You can either If StochD(14,1) crosses x____over _______under 50_______value x_____buy _______________selll x_______and __________or __________separate logic gate ???? MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll ???? Not sure what logic you use for the MACD since it was not utilized in Cash Cow x_______and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume x___greater than _____________less than 20000______value _________and __________or x_______separate logic gate If StochD(14,1) crosses _______over x_____under 50________value _______buy x_____________selll x______and __________or __________separate logic gate ?????????? MACD(5) crosses _______over _______under _________value _______buy _______________selll ????????? ___x__and __________or __________separate logic gate Volume x_____greater than _____________less than 20000______value _________and __________or __________separate logic gate Let's say we have the entries down from Cash Cow. If there's other entry signals please enlighten me as I've done here what they are using this as a template. We'll see if you can follow simple instructions, and I know you can because you've articulated a system to Spydertrader and Scottd, but Scottd was the only one that produced a profitable backtest. Jack I can appreciate you participating, but if you really want to teach me something, you'll answer in the format above. Nothing flies off the page to me about seeing indicators without seeing the "logic gates" I've seen you refer to in the past. So please help me, and I think you'll be doing yourself a favor.
For those interested, tomorrow will mirror today. The first FTT will end a short, so trade short from bar 1 to about bar 6 to 8. To go B2B next, you have to hold through declining volume hit the RTL trough of volume and then hold as volume goes to the peak at point 2. Then reverse short for the non dom traverse which will last 2 to 3 bars... maybe longer. After that reverse long for the, dominant volume that will take you to the ending FTT of the first complete trading Cash Cow cycle of the day The cash Cow will take you in short, and reverse you to long. Today,the trips lasted 28 to 30 bars; it will be similar tomorrow. For the OP, he again will not see any tradeable signals. The inductive reasoning he does prevents him from "seeing the market's movements". The first price low (an FTT) of the day's range expansion will be a cycle ending for channels, traverses of channels, tapes of traverses and BBT's of tapes. This short channel ending milestone marks the beginning of the LAST long channel before the END of the Bull retrace in this long lasting Bear economic market. It began in late JUNE 2006. While I did not post, publically, an annual set of legs for 2009 in December 2008 as I usually would, THIS comment is the equivalent of a year's forecast. As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life. Clean Page 4's horizontal line that is in effect (gap adjusted) is what has caused a few minor fractal pertibations to move this sub retrace bottom forward somewhat in the pre Labor Day confluence. I find it very very hard to imagine that a Finacial Analyst who sells his services has no clue as to what is going on, signal wise, at the moment and particularly this moment in time. Obviously no one in the public eye has a clue either. It is important every day at the close to debrief and do a preflight check. I have explained the carryover for tomorrow as a convenience to all because you will be remembering the run up for the end of the Bull retrace in this Bear economic market for a long time to come. Many of you will be leaving the markets permanently. I got locked out of the market yesterday for the first time in my life. In another thread, others comment about the same occurance at about the same time. Our mutual failures had a deeper cause in broker support failures. Beware in the future.