Quote from bwolinsky: Jack, please interpret the signals DU and FRV. I can see some as a percentage of the 65 day volume average, but it's not obvious from this table what DU or FRV is measuring. Also, there's nothing Scottd is doing that in any way relates to this document. After looking at it, it appears you are saying the market is controlled by volume, which I would say has no real basis....I'd have to backtest it. I put the one pager up to go beyond Trader666 and his pals lack of understanding of markets. By using it a person at fifth grade or above can make money trading stocks. Over the years I have made a glossary of terms for pool extraction which is outside of the CW that the financial industry used until its recent collapse and continuing meltdown. The history of the term dry up can be traced I'm sure. It was probably related to water originally. Pour water on the ground on a sunny Summer day and it will dry up. In trading most people do not understand how markets work. So they can't figure anything out. Now go further. Put a bucket on the ground. Use a hose. Do what any fifth grader would do. Fill the bucket. Walk away and come back in a month or so. DU is the ground with no water or a bucket with no water. We choose a Universe of stocks that are like choosing a kind of bucket. It is like bar tenders choose glasses for their bar. They choose glasses that fill up fast and empty fast. The universe is a tall bucket, tall glass kind of stock. DU is like before starting to pour a beer from a supply. FRV is when the bar tender recognizes he is no longer missing the hole at the top of the glass. Peaking is when the beer level cannot rise any more. Here is how the world works on stock prices. Disagreement causes low volume. Our (meaning those who use this method and not turkeys like the OCD's here) Universe only allows high beta stock shaped bucket or beer glasses. By taking data, we found out how the stocks work in the universe. Think of it as a good sampling that made me rich in the 50's, 60's, 70's 80's, 90's, and 00's. This knowledge allowed me to deduce a few things: timing the markets and choosing the high beta stocks. I put it on a page for people who are dumb fucks who cannot time the market or choose the right stocks. I had to add columns to the page and do the rules in color. the added columns had to show when therer was disagreement on price (DU). The columns had to show timing (FRV and PEAKING) People who use the one pager also have universes and they have the ability to RANK stocks. The stock's RANK is its % change per day when it is in the long portion of its cycle. If a person is not a dumb fuck he can look at all his ranking sheets and see the average time of hold, divide it into 100 and make the answer the exponent of the compound interest formula. Next this non dumb fuck would put the rank into the formula and use his calculator to get an answer. He takes the answer and sees it is greater that 10x times the capital he chose to enter. What he found out is how stocks that are in the Universe and have RANKS, if he trades them, the has an order of magnitude shift in wealth in less than 100 days. He found out it was less than 50 days too. DU is when a stock is at the bottom of its cycle in the Universe. One any day if it feels like it, it can decide to not be in DU. Because Qcharts had a programmer who made up "unusual volume" as a column heading, we used it years ago to watch lists. Today people have "Watchlists" these watch lists are social science history lists of what happened that you missed before the stock got on the list. We did it backwards. We made a universe and we used the universe to make up a hot list. The hot list has stocks that are in DU that are about to go to FRV in a while. When they do they go to the top of the list BEFORE the price breakout. they do this because the volume is no longer in DU and you know this because the "unusual Volume" column is how the list is sorted. I figured all of this out and when the PC was invented even dum fucks could use "unusual volume" to make an order of magnitude of money change in less than 100 days. It is true, however, that we proved here that people dumber than dumb fucks could not do this, test it, understand it or use it to be rich. Obviously this is something for people who are not the sharpest tacks in the box but are not afflicted with "dumb fuckness". Today a person click on a sort icon. The Universe appears. He looks at the list and prepares a rank sheet (it is done automatically on an excel sheet when you transfer the Universe to the sheet) Oh wait, that is done automatically too. Anyway a person looks at what must come next in scoring for the stocks. On wait, the score is done on the Excel automatically too. The person makes a second list on Qcharts called a Hot list. the market opens and the hot list tells you an hour before price lifts off what stock to sell and what stock to buy. In "Putting the Pieces Together" the hand made Hot list is on page 17. The person is already trading the 100 test so you see owned stocks too. As you read through to page 77 you see 30 snagits of the hand made list and the Universe going through the day. The number 15 in the price change column on some of the charts is the price change from the open that day. There are some dumb fucks here who can't read and can't do this and they KNOW it is crap. Why? Well they are proven dumb fucks. The reason I invented all of this (I'm obviously not a trading strategist) was to point out to others on ET who the dumb fucks are. The above cited publication is in color and it has a video associated with it for those who are such dumb fucks that they cannot read. Trader666 has put the audio of the video on the web partially. It is the part where I explain to the group how order of magnitude changes occur in less than 100 days. Final exam: What is the smallest average profit over 100 daysou can plug into a compounding formula and still change the capital by an ordr of mangnitude? Extra credit: Can any stock with a rank that low make it into the Universe? LOL. A dumb fuck cannot figure this exam out.
What would have been answered with hard, quantitative math, was answered with riddles. Who's the dumb fuck now? Anyway, Scottd was given the system. As to today, SDS came back big for a slight loss. Still net up $64 on $10k in the last week.
The humor was not possible to pass up. The 30 min chart is correct too. The dull quant answer (induction verification) is that 400,000 elements were used to verify. Doing this many runs is normal for people who are on the ball. I guess this set of runs answered another Q too. The chcken and egg one. Volume leads price. For the sharper tacks, tradingshort in equities makes more money than trading long over the same time period. An ancillary aspect of this is the fact (this means proven bythorough excaminations) that during RTH over the years indexes drop in value. It is only the overnight increases that more than compensate for this net decline during RTH. Sooo you can use the one pager for short trading as well. On Qcharts the symbols for short trading are red in color and at the top of the list. For those who are really into doing turns over time, the chart and lists can be used for crossover trading. The optimum hold is 2 1/2 days (this is a fact too) and about 100 cycles are done a year. To optimize crossovers you watch held stocks drop below new buys on your hot list and then switch the capital from one to another on partial fills. Here there is a corroboration in the % change price column you need to be showing. Factually speaking for the limit of 100,000 shares the ratio of exits to entries on cross over is 30 to 20. you have to keep the Xfer goingat a max of 10% of cummulative daily volume. A nominal time time requirement is about 4 hours plus to do this and not exceed the block sizes on the T&S. I know this is all so dull be4cause it is just the bare facts as thoroughly performed over a long period like 20 years. For any traders who are anticipating becoming expert; trading is a different world than you read about in the media or on web sites. making money takes getting used to. One of the constraints o making a lot of money is your attitude and approach. People who are kinda out of it and upset and angry can't do it very well.. Coherence is definitely a requirement. The one pager is quite nifty as you see. we spent five years here helping others Q and A, and providiing script etc. Fortunately, it falls on deaf ears of the wrong kind of people. A person can be what he wants. He turns out to be wrong for this stuff if his mind is made up in a certain way. It is just one of those pleasant miracles. I'm going to have to learn how to use smiley faces... I only know the Chernoff's for recording psychiatric sessions. Wait until Trader666 finds the tapes of my lecture series at the Psychiatric dept of Mich. Or the ISAGA tapes from Berlin or Johns Hopkins.... Trading on an expert level means the cobwebs have to be gone and the mind has to think critically as time passes. Gradually the mind becomes differentiated. I probably shold post 100 books on the aspects of this stuff. None are trading books. I am beginning to think I should post the 100 questions one has to consider also. Trading is not a dumb fuck business. The market continually offers. Entry/exit does not allow a person to stay off the sidelines. The market has no chop or noise. It is prima facia that price change is the only way the market makes its offer.
Jack, what kind of gut level reality-threatening shock are you going to experience when it finally sinks in that the ranks of successful traders are filled with persons of low character who win with pitifully simple methods, methods that don't use volume, that don't rely on arcane connections to issues other than what they trade, methods that have no abstruse theoretical underpinning, methods that are so unambiguous that you can nap between system calls, methods that don't require an entire community of dimwits to refine with no end in sight, methods that simply WORK? Can you even imagine the PAIN that realization will cause you? How stunned you will be that you have built up an incredible and incomprehensible model of trading that was all unnecessary? The humiliation and sense of cosmic betrayal you will feel when you thought you needed to be smart and good to make money? When that happens, and it is coming, and soon, and sooner than you expect, I will be here for you.
It is certainly true in most entrepreneurial endeavors that success and brains do not correlate. Everything you say about traders is on the mark to be sure. There are many many ways to trade successfully and keeping track of many of them is a great idea and practice. No one needs to try to be smart to make a heck of a lot of money in the markets. Spending over fifty years in trading is not an accomplishment at all; it is merely the passage of time. It was nice to experience being independent from the beginning. Independent means having the means of self determination. Having had an independent life has been fun indeed. There is nothing that is gut wrenching in trading or intellectual pusuits. And I never experienced a medical malpractice suit either. All the elements and factors that you are assigning to me is what you do. Enjoy you modus, these items are not my bag it turns out. Elsewhere I posted a one pager. Someone suggests that it be tested now that it is written on a sheet of paper. Obviously, it is as you say above to you and to many others. The sheet was simply a distillation of the factors in a multi generation group's experience and not something that was untested. You can note surrounding it, experience and performance and several years of posting calls and their respective results. So a multi-year record precedes this weeks posting of the one pager. The one pager is not a model; it is just a simple tool that is useful for eliminating not having an abundant supply of money. Who cares it if it not used by anyone in particular. The pool extraction paradigm is seminal and again who cares if it is not used by anyone in particular. As you say, there is a broad and strong wedge of successful traders doing a vast array of approaches going down the six lane highway of trading. Does anyone person stand out? Yes of course, each and everyone stands out for a good set of reasons. The throng is vast and broad and it makes the world go round.
Cash Cow from Bwolinsky went long SDS at an estimated price of 53.43 around 3:30 when the market started to take profits. QID is looking oversold, which is to say, the NDX is overbought and I will trade accordingly. INTC had blowout numbers and this encouraged the market to rally, but there's a lot of earnings reports to come not just this week but next week. Data lagged the indication of recession this time around, so it's likely to lag the recovery as well. In either case, I feel we're near temporary tops, and close to multi-week highs so to go short looks attractive.
Not sure what went wrong but it looks like the real time data feed failed while I was away on cash cow, and by the time I got back where it should have sold at 53.26 it didn't, and is still holding tonight. The results are now bullshit, so I'm thinking about scrapping it, and I'd blame it on the broker. PTQQS went short in QID on the open, and we'll see if it comes back but most likely will be exiting that short tomorrow.
Market is still overbought. Last sold QID at 30.04. Clients have given me an ultimatum if it declines by more than 20% from here for PTQQS to be out, unleveraged. No trades from Cash Cow.
Beau, the biggest problem (other than the fact it hasn't made any money in a year and a half) with PTQQS is the name. It isn't a pair trading system and it's not a scalper. Change the name to QQ Swing Trading System and half the irritation your system engenders will disappear.