lol, apropos for this weekend. Good guacamole on tap. (Umm, go Pats. (Sorry I have to say that. If I do not, I will get lynched by all these crazy New Englanders.))
Interest rates been going up, but reports came out on inflation? Crude oil yes and food no. From highs to 2023÷2=What? But it all guessing.
It's a cliche, but if you can call the reversal, that means you can call bottom. Then you will have the goose that laid the golden egg, part the sea, and walk on water. May the force be with you, lol https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/buy-the-dips.asp
Looking at the chart, I think maybe we go back and revisit where we started this year which was only 1 month ago. Somewhere under 2600 on the S&P. I think there's pretty decent support there because at that time, tax cuts were not completely priced in. I think it all depends on what happens with the dollar and yield on long term treasuries.
Dollar going to continue to drop so we can compete tad better against countries that pay a bowl of rice for the day, we need to have 100% tax paid at the registry for any foreign made goods, only way to get anything changed is force consumers to pay more for goods made out of the USA. Except for Amazon, Walmart don't have much competition and they only seek whatever is cheapest unlike the creator Sam Walton who pushed for "Buying American Goods". http://www.nytimes.com/1985/04/10/business/wal-mart-s-buy-american.html And after he died, America died in a way as children took over and bought mainly from far east. As far as interest rates peaked out June 2012 and recent rally in June 2016 was a rally to sell. Using last 9 year cycle and seeking 75% of the range puts it at 117-12, so where I be a buyer and reverse out of shorts. As far as Indexes or ES, last year rocket climb never a good chart pattern and seen it coming back to at least 1928 over time. The 200sma on dailies is at 2531, I will continue to hold long stocks but hedged for this downside losses, want to continue to receive dividends and dance options around positions.
The average voter just wants cheap stuff. They don't care about trade imbalance and they think it's perfectly patriotic that they get to enjoy a much higher quality of life vs. someone else in another country willing to do the same job for a bowl of rice. I agree 100% with everything that you said, but you're asking for a cultural change which won't happen until people are forced to change...it won't be a voluntary change. Could have been voluntary in the past, but the culture has changed. Until then, we can take the easy path of simply continuing to run up the trade deficit and take on more debt. Long term as well as medium and short term, metals and shorting TLT and IYR looks attractive here. To address the debt and trade issues, long term, dollar devaluation relative to other currencies looks like the path of least resistance and therefore the path that politicians will choose.
One would have to go back to 1950s for people to make changes on a volunteer basis but hardly anyone trusts the government much, I don't. So forcing at register a foreign tax as we want equality since there is none on China side. If we completely said one day, we will inspect every container by the box, ships be the docks for years to get unloaded, that might change China's outlook on helping more with North Korea or buying more goods from USA. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar is two edge sword as it makes our real estate more appealing to foreigners. And I agree with you, people won't change unless it costs them more money. Am long term short Gold, financials, US Dollar, indexes and long silver, coffee, cotton, most currencies. Stocks almost always(dividends and covered calls) long but hedging downside. You and I think alike, shh the attackers will come, LOL