I don't disagree that we're dealing in generalities over the long run. That's the point. There will always be exceptions to any rule. But, I am curious... if the underlier is falling (therefore both historic & implied rising) how will you find someone to offer you an inexpensive put? The put sellers aren't dumb, they raise the prices too and usually the spreads widen a lot; liquidity dries up. I see that as a big problem in terms of being able to systematically find the opportunities. Short stock selling by itself isn't glamorous because the stock market always goes up (eventually). As a hedge it's another story.
If something is working for you, then milk it for all its got. Get rich doing that. Go big and big and bigger just like Lehman Brothers minus the losing part Timing is everything. Timing is the Holy Grail. And leverage options too
That's what speculation is about. A stock might have fallen, its IV risen and the options will reflect just that. But it won't reflect our speculation that the stock will fall even more and its IV rise even more. The put is going to be inexpensive at the top and expensive at the bottom. Speculation is about carrying a certain risk for an uncertain reward. "Inexpensive" will be relative to the individual's expected reward (Or whatever perspective). As far as the spread ... illiquid instruments aren't recommended and I always use limit orders.
Don't worry... 3-4 weeks is the perfect spot for a speculative buyer to completely ignore theta decay
Get what you are saying, the market itself goes up over time. The indexes mainly do so because of reconstituting the components. None of the originals ones in the Dow remain, for instance - none. And only 53 of the original S&P 500. As for individual issues, I've yet to see any go to infinity but plenty have gone to zero.
And that's why you have to learn to deviate from that basis of adjusted risk spectrum so you can generate more money without it having to be an automatically necessarily blind risk gamble exposure Sekiyo yo yo yoooo