You can guesstimate what options will achieve by looking at existing option chains - albeit limited to price movement equivalent to strike difference and expiration series difference. For example, a $30 stk. If price dropped $2.50 today, the $30 put would go to the value of the current $27.50 put (ignoring IV change). For time related guesstimates, the if it took 1 month for it to drop $2.50, the May 30 put would be worth what the Apr 27.50 put is worth today. Obviously, this assumes IV is static... or at least shifts to what the next month is. IRL, it's a bit more complicated Clear as mud?
The only way I could see the $10 as "more risky" is that you have a very high probability of losing everything you paid for the option as it will likely get nowhere near the money.
since you did state your a newb to options don't get ants in your pants. paper trade your ideas until you have a small clue as to what is goin on. then maybe risk some real dough.( 1 contract ) most people who 'purchase" options lose. its a fact. all my big winners have been puts when market is trending in same direction. don't be greedy and dream of makin 500% on 1 trade just because it might have worked 1 time. when you get a good feel for options you'll know what i mean when "if they're cheap...you're gonna be wrong"