Nope. You won't. When SKF went to $250, and the carry rate went seriously negative, it was not a shortable stock. Your broker would literally auto-liquidate your short position even if you have cash to cover the losses, and not allow you to trade into the short side of that product. It happened in March 2009, and will happen again. This trade is a guaranteed blow-out. It is russian roulette. Do the trade, just be sure to take your profits out of your brokerage account often.
Well, I gave up on predicting of market moves. So far, I noticed that most of major moves for fas/faz happen overnight. generally it's hard to tell when you fall or fly in advance. So far I'm out of my FAS, and loaded with FAZ at $85 (actually that one was not my incentive), $52 and couple days ago around 30. However I'm not nervous at all. My reason is pretty simple: 1. no way to pace the market (unless intraday). 2. My bet: market WILL retest 6500 low and SHOULD test 6000. 3. According to #2, FAZ WILL have a chance to fly high to $100-150 again. 4. No idea, WHEN 2 and 3 happen. Thus I just should sit tight and wait patiently. Once I had FAS $6.60 bought when market just started last drop. I did not sell them for 6.50 and was almost desperate to see them at $2.50. That position was added. Then they jumped to 3 and I sold that portion, still keeping the first 6.60 portion. And they flew high to 7!! Sold at profit. But tiny profit. Can you imagine what profit would have been if I had held 2.50 position as well? Ok, with FAS it was risky and not really expected as market is in major downturn. Thus I will just try another tactics...
I think that playing FAZ is sort of like going into battle, much more than other market plays. So perhaps it would be good to adopt the same sort of mental strategy, one that is effective in helping a person both stay alive and accomplish their goals in a life and death situation. Count yourself as dead already. Do not hang on to your life so dearly. That is a very good way to lose it. For FAZ, if you are sane, you are not wagering any monies you cannot afford to lose. So count that which you put into FAZ as gone. Dead. Then you can think clearly. Weigh the innate guides you feel (or the charts if you're a technical) and calmly walk into the fray. You will do better, sleep more soundly, smile more often. At least that's the way I look at it.
Ya, from a purely TA perspective, holding above S&P 804 on Tues. looked pretty good for the bulls (just barely).... However, news cycle, sentiment can turn on a dime and blow TA out of the water. But, the TA is keeping me from doubling down yet...we could see FAZ in the $10 to low teens before this bear rally is over.
I'm sorry if O disappoint you but the downturn in reverse ETF's not over atleast based on today's trading. I only trade SPY options but i watch the levels on SKF, SDS, QID and DXD for beaking tru levels. The upper range is not finished yet.