I just put in a longer term EURJPY trade from 136.35 with target 140 - stop at 133 for now. I might set the stop lower if I think the ERUJPY becomes stale and protracted... or just stop the trade, but it seems like a likely bounce. JPY intervention is very likely right now... that is the strongest case for my putting this trade. The massive Nikkei losses will force a politically motivated intervention - as Japanese exporters cry out. Also, the Japanese have lots of cash to throw into the currency markets - so it won't cost them too much, low threshold. Overnight and into the European RTH we will probably see some strong moves... might need to adjust stop for whiplash. Size is â¬1mn.
EURJPY failed first test on pushing above 138, but the US treasury debt auctions are just the icing on the cake - there will be much more to come to finance all the bailout plans they have. Yields are also up, and it seems like it is starting to dawn on people... time's up? Asian session might be good for EURJPY scalping - or any JPY cross... but I am just on one last scalp for the night - as well as the long EURJPY to 140, while I will stop the scalp at 139 or between 139 and 138 if that looks pertinent... Ah - 3 touches on 138 now ... EURUSD spiked the 1.3750 - so I guess it's getting ready now.
Ahm, closed the EURJPY now ... just resetting - and got +305 pips on it - another ⬠+40,000 The long EURUSD is now â¬+42,000 (at +285 pips) - but still looking for the 1.40s... and preferrable 1.45... update: A little -50p EURJPY downturn just now - so I was right in securing profits I guess. Anyway, it was a good run for it. Might be touching some psyche level on 140, so that is why it fails establishing above 139.50 although breach 3-4 times.
It seems EURUSD is leading the push now, and EURJPY might follow. Maybe a little anaemic just at the moment in EURJPY, better scalping in EURUSD.
EURJPY looked more obvious, and leading the EURUSD now again... I spent a little too much time on ET, and not looking at the charts... but I also find the trading conditions more "iffy" - the EURJPY retraced more than 200pips before it found "median support", and I don't "trust" the 137.50 support. Not sure about scalping for myself as of yet. Some solidifying information and news would make it easier. (I closed the long EURJPY at 139.40 for 305p, but I had another from the drawdown below 136 where I had a sell target of 139 in case of 140 failure, and that had already closed that trade - that was why the profits were 2x300p - just woke up to find it close to 139.50 and then closed the other one.)
This is what I mean about not trusting the 137.50 in the EURJPY, hehe... better wait for "trustworthy" conditions. I haven't been scalping today - because I don't "see the markets," but rather been posting here and reading up. And - I won't do any more reporting on trades I do... it's just not worth the mental hassle anyway -- when EURUSD hits the 1.40 I will start trailing and deciding if I let it go all the way up to 1.45 - which is my definite goal. However, I can make well on scalping as well - but posting about it is really very distracting and not worth the bother. It is also easily questionable - no matter how you try to support it with facts, snapshots or timing of posting - and that is why it's not worth it bothering posting profits or trades. I made roughly ⬠75,000 in around 24h on scalping, position trading overnight and have a â¬2mn position entry from 1.3478 on EURUSD - at â¬+22,000 right now - but it has been in the mid 40k. It is a long-term trade, like explained. It seems most here are selectively promoting their successful trades and not representing all the bad drawdowns they are experiencing. Naturally, getting feedback on negative trades just feeds the negative mindset - so it is ultimately self-destructive to represent such negative trades and get feedback reinforcing this negativity -- well, at least for those heavily invested in beliefs of their own integrity of understanding or superiority into insights to the markets. That includes myself to some degree of course, we all have some degree of egoism to everything we do. My argument is that reporting trades is just "distractionary" - unless you try to reinforce your positive mental state of mind - in which case you are self-enforcing a deceptive systemic bias - which will eventually lead to a catastrophic drawdown when you get too invested in your beliefs and go contrary to the reality of market conditions. Overall, it is not being truthful if you only represent your "successful" periods and censor your other trades. I haven't been scalping for quite some time, but find it's easy to get into again. From an ethical viewpoint, I find it useless to promote or be part of such discretionary self-aggrandizing - unless it is to exchange beneficial information. However, it is more beneficial to present the "systems thinking" rather than the trades themselves - i.e one would be better served just saying when one sees signals, the direction and realistic stops; and then be done with it - not saying anything about the exits. That way the exits could be interpreted and related to the risk and money management of each and every one without any bias on stops etc. Always thinking, adapting - and being able to change your strategy according to risk, money management and trading conditions - always take time to reflect on markets and understand them before trading - that is how you become more consistent, but never perfect.