And I suppose that a verification process would start by spending about 2 minutes using Google to find, articles debunking your "expert" . . . eg http://www.esignallearning.com/education/marketmaster/archive/1205/121605.asp where the author points out . . . "Assuming we have no reason to doubt these statistics, they seem to back up the popular belief. On careful reading, however, it appears that the figures represent only those options held until expiration and not those closed out OR exercised before expiration. ." and then adds in some (unquoted in your cited article) CBOE data to provide his own conlusions. Perhaps you would like to read the artical and comment?
Your thinly veiled attempt to promote your agenda is not fooling anyone. You are ignoring everything you are being told and instead moving forward with your false premises. If you were rational you would no longer ask questions here because you have already determined that you don't trust the answers you are receiving but instead are relying on other sites for your information. But you aren't really asking questions - you are making statements dressed up as questions and again it fools no one. Complain to the moderators all you want, I'm not sure why you think they would come to the rescue of a troll like yourself. Rest assured that no one is going to fall for your assine posts here and each one will be answered and debunked accordingly.
I would ask, are you here to convince yourself that you found the holy grail of trading because of what you read on some website (which must be true as it is a real website) or trying to convince us to go along with what you read. 2 sides make a trade. If you ask questions, then threaten to report to the moderators because you don't like the answer - don't ask the question. If you have already formed an opinion why bother here. Many ohter folks have offered their thoughts but it seems you do not like the answers. Basically what is the purpose to why you are here with this thread? Are you looking for the exchange of ideas or to convince us of what you already believe to be true? Or is this a journal of what you intend to do?
Thanks Dashing Blade for the reply. Your research says the following. "So, now, the figures make sense. Perhaps 80 percent of options that run to expiry do expire worthless. (Perhaps, the real figure is 70 or 90 percent.) However, that is not the same as saying 80 percent of ALL options expire worthless. Can you see the difference? Furthermore, coming to the conclusion that it is better to be a seller than a buyer from a single biased statistic like this is plain nonsense! With a topic such as options trading, it is easy to get caught up with statistics, but, if we take the time to think and research before drawing conclusions, surely we will become better traders. *Reprinted (and modified) with permission from Guy Bower of www.guybower.com **55% is half way between the 50 - 60 percent CBOE number." I have looked at this persons credentials and his site is here. http://www.option1.com.au/ It is obvious to me that Guy Bower is selling a system. You will find that most of the contributors to e-signal also sell something. Have you ever heard of the saying "Beware Of Salesmen". Do you honestly think that any person serious about trading would take the word of Guy Bower over that of John Suma CTA and Carly Garnrer Research. You will have to come up with more solid facts to back up your theories, in the same way that I have. Your contribution is much appreciated for it opens up the debate and hopefully us newbies will get some real value from the discussions. Cheers. Derivman
Thanks for the reply GTS. Why do most of you attcak me when all I am doing is trying to learn something. Just becasue my own Opinion, which I think I have backed up with solid research, does not agree with yours does in no way mean that I am wrong, and likewise it does not mean that you are right. Cheers. Derivman
Thanks for the reply DblArrow. I did not say I would report the replies or beliefs of any members here to the mods. I simply said I would report their behavior towards a newbie. Quite frankly I don't care if you disagree with my research or my links. I just like to hear opinions from members on this forum. Do you see anything wrong in the behavior of some people so far. I am trying to be civil but I am finding it very hard. It is just as well I am a very patient person, which I believe from my research is a very desirable quality for successful Option trading. Cheers. Derivman
Thanks for the reply Dashing Blade. I have mentioned in my reply that Mr Guy Bower is selling a system where he goes on to say, "We endeavor to return 2% to 5% per month through spread trading." Quite frankly I have no interest in reading anything by anyone who makes such a statement. From my experiences trading Futures, and with my cash in account, I can honestly say that 2% to 5% per month is nothing to go out of your way for. Lets say I am a new trader with $50K account. If I make 5% per month then my profit before commissions is $2,500. I do not know if you can survive on this amount but I will honestly tell you that I can not. If you want to post additional research material that you have, from someone who is more positive in relation to % returns in the market, then I will gladly take as much time as I need to review the material. Until such time I will continue with my own research material, as my research has not yet failed me to date, nor do I expect it to. The reason I am so confident is because I do not move on until I am 100% happy that I fully understand the basics. Trying to move on without fully understanding the basics, is in my opinion, like sending a child to do a mans job, and we all know the result of that, the job will never be completed. Cheers. Derivman
I would like to wish all my fellow Elite members a nice weekend. I will review my notes and books in relation to Options and post some more interesting comments next week. Thank you all for your kind input and hopefully we will all learn from the replies. Learning can be accomplished by anyone once they put their mind to it and it is always a two way experience. Cheers. Derivman
"Based on a CME study of expiring and exercised options covering a period of three years (1997, 1998, 1999), an average of 76.5% of all options held to expiration at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange expired worthless" This is the most telling that the source is CME. Most people do not want to own a futures contract right before expiration of that futures contract. As a result, positions which have any value are likely to be offset well before expiration of the option. In any case, I'm confused. You've now had a half dozen experienced options traders tell you: 1) Options are a zero-sum game 2) It doesn't matter whether it's zero-sum or not 3) There is no edge in buying vs selling options 4) Most written options DO NOT expire worthless, only those written options which are held to expiration do. You've announced you think we're all wrong, and then continued to solicit our input. Either we're full of it and should be ignored, or we're not and you're making a bad choice. How we ended up in the category of "full of it, but knowledgeable enough to illicit more information from" is a mystery to me.