I don't even understand the question. Is it about buying calls in coffee? If that is the question/comment, the answer is simple. If you buy vol and it goes higher, you make money. If you sell vol and it goes lower you make money. And vice versa on losing money. China drinking more or not is not the core issue. It is whether that factor and others has been taken into consideration by current vol, and whether the real vol is realized before expiration. nitro
I'll bite. Who is this "veteran Option Trader"? What are his qualifications? I would bet there are members of this site who have more experience.
Thanks for the reply GTS. As far as I am aware, as I am the thread starter I am responsible for making sure that all post are in relation to the topic, or, are in relation to trading Options in general. For example, if someone comes along and starts posting about trading the ES E-mini, which I have experience in by the way, then it would not be right for me to allow discussions in relation to the E-mini as many of the viewers may have no interest in the subject. If you think I am acting out of bounds here, then I can request the mods to give me the moderator rights to this thread that I started, and then it will be technically be my thread as I will be responsible for moderating it. Let me know if you think this is a good idea, and seen as I may have to start reporting certain traders shortly, this may not be a bad idea. But I am happy with whatever the Elite mods think is best, for my purpose here has now been clearly stated, and that is, I am here to learn how to trade Options for consistent profits, and seen as the forum is a trading forum, where traders meet and hold debates in relation to trading, then as far as I am concerned, this will be one of the best threads ever to be started on Elite, and it may be the best educational thread that has ever been started in relation to Options trading. You have just given me that elated feeling, the one you get when you have just closed a large position for big profits. Thank you for your input. Cheers. Derivman
No, that is not correct. Yes, please request moderator rights for this thread - I'm sure the mods need a good laugh too. You keep threatening to complain to the mods like they are actually going to take your complaints seriously. Look at what you have contributed to this thread - nothing. You have made the most off-topic replies of anyone. Start by reporting yourself.
Thank you for the reply nitro. My apologies if I may have mislead anyone, but due to certain members and their kind and thoughtful words, my posting has changed slightly. I have been instructed to not concentrate on just one market, and to concentrate on the Options Market in general. This reason why has been explained to me as follows, "certain markets will exhibit more favorable probable outcomes, to other markets, at certain times, thus, you must be willing and able to shift your positions accordingly, when, and as, required" Thanks for your reply and it is much appreciated. Cheers. Derivman
That is certainly true, especially in seasonal commodities like coffee. A similar example is Heating Oil vs Gasonline futures. In the winter, people buy Heating Oil futs and Sell Gasonline futs when the cost of heating a home is high. Then in summer they do the opposite because summer is the driving season, and it doesn't cost to heat a home in summer (in the northern latitudes). This trade doesn't always do well, but similar ideas do do well. Options add at least one layer of complexity to these trades. nitro
Thanks for the reply opt789. I can't name my instructor, for obvious reasons, so I am sure that you will understand this fully. All I can say, is that he frequents Elite Trader from time to time and knows who the real experst here are. He has told me several days ago that it is very easy to spot the real experts, and it will become obvious to me as my training progresses. He has not told me if any of the traders here are of the same caliber as himself, but then again, he is a very modest person and I don't think he would look down on anyone. If he tells me anything else to say to you in relation to this matter, then I will gladly pass it on, but to conclude, yes, you are correct, there are several very experienced traders at Elite, that I know and will agree with you fully 100%. Cheers. Derivman
Let me guess... CYOF? This mentor is the one who espoused this +sum, selling bias [il]logic? Do you consider your mentor to be on the same-strata as the fat chick or John Summa? My condolences if that is the case. It's obvious to anyone with brain-activity that this bizarro-dialectic is an attempt to prove that short puts are superior to long calls. YOU ARE the edge in the market if you believe that to be the case.
Yeah, but the perks in politics can't be beat. True knowledge of financial instruments is often a discovery process (and an expensive one at that). You won't be able to learn anything until you're actually willing to learn, all vitriol aside. Good luck to you...