You can still have high earnings around the starting of a bear market. 2010-2019 is not the right time frame to test this. 1997-2010 would be better if possible.
It is OK, I enjoyed your posts/opinions/comments because often they made sense to me and I learned something.
There's a lot of factors that go into earnings though, a big one being that typically (always?), the larger the operational size and/or market cap of the company in question, the more management attempt and/or succeed at managing their earnings in order to consistently beat the estimates. There was some research done, I can't remember where I found it but someone better at finding this stuff would probably be able to dig it up, that concluded that about 60-65% of companies beat the earnings estimates for any given quarter. Now, not included in that research but definitely available to be searched independently, there are companies that have higher estimate-beat rates than that. If I were a betting man, my money would be on that strategy done in the backtest having positive EV, especially if it were done with S&P components or some kind of basket of large cap stocks.
I am trying to figure out the best earnings options strategy myself. Many players do straddles and some news organization always publishes the expected historic move for each company earnings on the day before. But I am not convinced that is the best play. I tend to think it is better to use OTM strangles and risk less but hope for a big move. With a straddle you have look for high IV rank when you make the buy, plus hope for a big move. But you could always start with a straddle and add to the winning side the next day. An IC can leave you ITM with a short calls or puts. In a way, I think it is better to just wait until the next day and look for the direction and sell a credit spread - one ITM and one OTM (for the high delta) Also - there is nothing wrong with going out a month or two with earnings plays - especially if you are collecting credit.
More from Marshall of Goldman Sachs: How to Make Sense of the Stock Market in the Age of Algorithmic Trading By Steven M. Sears Barron's Updated April 25, 2019 11:34 a.m. ET