I dont think so, this past week we saw the same drop of 146 points only to open down the next day and rally hard. I wouldnt be worried. If the markets start to really fail to breakout over the next 2-3 weeks I think it would be time to worry. Everytime negative news comes it lasts a few sessions and disappears as the markets move on to new highs.
Point is would you want to hold long position over weekend? Weekly S&P chart closed lower than previous week's open + divergence (weekly!), DAX is set for a decline on daily chart. Point is, if there is uncertainty, then you should at least be flat, not long over the weekend IMO.
Today cnbc had on Mr. Mark Arbeter, he said he sees a 10-15% increase in the s&p 500 by the end of summer!!!!! Hope someone else saw it this morning around 8:30am. I thought that was funny.
with the market focused on housing, best to wait until Tuesday after the new and existing home sales reports come out. If one of those reports are bad, we could see lower prices. No sense in overpaying, imho.
a crash sneaks up on ya. A crash occurs when the market does not have time to prepare. Rarely does a crash occur when most everyone anticipates one. When most everyone is anticipating one, the market is psychologically cornered and ripe for raping by a large money pool.
I couldn't agree more. I'm mostly a bear but I feel too many people are anticipating a crash or "correction". No body can anticipate one. If it ever does happen, like you said its when you least expect it and bites many in the ass.
I don't see why there would more uncertainty about the markets this weekend than any of the recent previous weekends. The difference is in hindsight, we can always look at charts and see how it turned out. Now we're at the very right hand side of the SP500 chart and like always when T=0 there is a level of uncertainty about future price movement, just I doubt it's any higher or lower than what we are used to historically.
There is ALWAYS uncertainty in markets. Thats a goofball statement. You should be more worried when there is certainty.
Ingredients for a Crash: 1) competing asset class offers favorable return against inflation 2) price movement is contrary to warning signs for a extended period of time 3) liquidity crunch 4) market catalyst over a weekend China is one of the most important factors, Chinese realize, that a extended downturn in american public sentiment will decrease consumption. And in turn slow down wealth transfer, and cause unrest domestically. If the stock market fails to move higher, the GOP will loose the presidential election. And politically unfriendly administration to the markets is possible. Its in the best interest of all parties to keep prices higher, otherwise the system cracks. The democrats are realizing this, and bashing China and talking about taxes on the wealthy. To basically hit the market, so the administration in power is blamed for the current climate. The War has for the most part been ignored secondary to favorable situation in the markets. Low yields and equity appreciation. For the most part its in the best interest of China/Japan to keep speculative tendencies high. To keep the carry trade going. Otherwise their economic picture deteriorates even more. Thats why your seeing USDJPY hit 124 or higher. Favorable comments out of policy makers will support the market. Bernanke will reiterate that inflation is tame. Its cajoling or jawboning bond yields lower. Its why his statement is pretty critical this coming week. Pretty much all the dominoes are lined up and factors favor a sharp rally as news of the hedge fund debacle abates. Chris
But it did happen back in Feb though, 2 lower peaks in histogram and 2 days later it crashed, similar patterns were present in DAX and FTSE I believe. But I can relate to what you are saying on the other hand, not saying you are wrong at all.