Spy likely to head higher over the rest of November with 87.36% probability based on a machine learning algorithm I’ve been running to read pattern and orderflow recognition.
SPY mark 271.89 as I type this, clean price about 271.10. Inverting the Diebold formula, using current VIX adjusted to root-time and Friday as a proxy for to-end-of-month vol, and fraction returns above zero as 87%, solves for an expected SPY move of about +6% between now and Nov 30th. I'm skeptical, but good luck.
I will buy when the moon is in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligns with Mars. Or will I sell....I forget. Maybe I will go long an ATM straddle....or is it a strangle?
That is a surprising statement from you. Surely you know that black swans can happen outside of finance? I am truly surprised at your thoughts on that.
Indeed. I reckon' that has something to do with the number of Republican "seats up" for the senate this year or some such? I have not paid much attention to the exacting details of what is going on in Congress, because I'm exhausted from watching this shitty October market for equities. But something in the back of my mind keeps screaming the "what if" thing. Bad habit. Apologies.