Other than the insane bullishness that still persists, I would say there was a chance of a year end sell off if only for first in first out (FIFO) tax accounting of the tax proposal that basically penalizes long term buy and holds with low cost base. That would have surely triggered a selloff for long term holders that have low cost base. However, since they got rid of FIFO in the revised version of tax code, those FIFO sellers are probably off the table for now. And so you're left with uber bullishness. People calling for 2700 on the SPX by year end. Which BTW is way above the street's consensus by even the most bullish analysts. Which BTW they had to revise multiple times as the market ran past their earlier estimates. And while you're at 2700, which is a crappy number, why not 3000? And if you're at 3000, why not 5000? At that point, why not 10,000? There's no end to this. Of course, it won't move there overnight, and things can change, but unless there was real structural problems, there is no reason to reprice stocks, and they simply drift higher as least resistance direction. But even if one believed in a 'sell off' at year end. Just a minor one. Well, historically the month of December never ends lower on the S&P compared to what it started with. This year, the S&P started the month of Dec at around 2650. So if statistical trends remain true, it will end the year at or higher than 2650. So even for worst case it is hardly much sell off, even at 2700 initial run up on tax plan signed before drifting to 2650 worst case. Also, the last few weeks of December is often a slow drift up, so hard to see a 50 point sell off in year end. All in all, the chance of a 'sell off' in 2017 is now quite slim, based on past trends. But again, anything can happen. Maybe because nobody expects it to, it will. But then, maybe it just won't. This entire year has been insane. Who in their right mind would have thought we are close to 2700 at year end? I honestly thought 2500 by mid year and 2550 by year end was possible. But it is pretty much at 2700 and the graph looks parabolic.
I would agree with the OP except for one thing... Investors Turn Most Bearish Since the Great Recession https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...s-turn-most-bearish-since-the-great-recession