a little snapshot comparison of qqq in late 2018 vs right now. bullish divergence on the oscillators in both scenarios. both markets paying close attention to fomc. seasonality is a bit different, and the last 2018 fomc happened on 12/18-19, a few days before the market bottomed on one last volume exhaustion. iwm has same similarities. not a prophesy, but potential bottoming scenario. we're in extreme fear right now, and everyone's been bearish, pricing in hawkishness and accelerated inflation. however, the consolidation in metals and commodities isn't there, and the pull back is actually pretty steep. mainstream media is selling the "death cross". I wonder if these are signs signs that we're closer to the end of this correction than the beginning.
2018 was rescued by the fed. Fed is not rescuing this time (they're not allowed to trade, why would they rescue it.) That being said, the wild card is indeed that Fed mans the printers.
%% Plenty of 2018 was uptrending on SPY+qqq\ but the bear never got the memo ''OCT 2o18 was nicknamed. ''bear killer'' LOL I DO see some 2022 uptrends, but SPY\QQQ so far below 200 day moving average. It's still a 200dma downtrend. If MAR does a SPY\QQQ bottom APR may or may not prove that??
Everyone is thinking hawkish fed. That's been priced at this point. So any kind of dovish talk tomorrow or any time in the future could effectively lead to a nice rally, the way the crude drop led to the rally today. Probably safer to just stay liquid, as I've not had much success even on the short side..
Whenever I see buy the dip I get angry sometimes because of the funds I lost buying the dip that never went up at some. But that's part of the market though.
Yeah buying the dip doesn't always work as advertised. I thought the NASDAQ was near bottom when I bought 120 shares TQQQ recently at $53.20 and then I watched it go down in flames. Yeah I shoulda dumped it and bought SQQQ and rode that to the REAL bottom, but yesterday vindicated me. Markets as a whole always go up. There will never be a forever record high. Back to the TQQQ example, not so long ago it was at $91.68 and it will go higher than that. Maybe kinda soon. Maybe not so soon. But it will go higher. If you have good diversity and you buy MARKET dips and not individual stock pick dips, and you don't expose yourself to margin calls and forced liquidation, in the bigger picture you will do okay. My accounts got really low for a while. Too many great ideas. Too much day/hour/minute trading. Getting stopped out. Not setting a stop and then selling the dip in a panic. Not selling the dip in a panic and watching it spiral down and then selling in despair. Watching it bounce back up off the bottom after I am out of the trade. The bigger picture, weeks, months, even years, won't make you the gains that day trading has the POTENTIAL to make, but that's where the steady money is. Back to TQQQ since I got the chart playing on yahoo and cnbc and tradingview, you could have bought this "dangerously volatile leveraged loser ETF that nobody in his right mind buys and holds even overnight" and held it, at any time before mid 2020 and be quite happy with it anytime since September of the same year. Yeah it did a massive face plant. Woe is me, money gone gone gone, and you still have profit in line with most managed funds, and beat the pants off the average day trader or perhaps I should say wannabe day trader. Two years is nothing. Now it is probably headed for the moon. And it will eventually find a resistance ceiling that slaps it back into the mud. More woe and grief, but those buying right now, or that bought before mid 2020, will probably not see a loss at all. Temporary losses. Not capital losses. It's ALWAYS a dip, when you are spread out and have lots of fingers in lots of pies. Watch the margin, it will bite you in the @$$. Trade with money, not wishes. If you had bought the same ETF when it was at $91 and never sold it, you know what? You are still a winner. It just doesn't look that way right now. You missed out on a year or two of profit. If it ruined you, then you are doing it all wrong. Sure, if you are smarter than the market, close or reverse a position when it turns against you. But how do you know it won't just re-reverse as soon as you hit that BUY or SELL button, or leave your computer for a few hours? One thing is for certain though, and that is as long as civilization and money exist, markets will in the long trend keep going up. Trying to outsmart it will as often as not spank you like a redheaded stepchild.
I've been saying this for many weeks the only seed of doubt I had was the War getting worse. If you buy quality stocks or value you can't go too far wrong when we test support on SPX this year. Even if markets dropped on news, if you can hold through it they'll likely be higher by year end ( like in 2016 ). The exception remains lower tier IT and any company that isn't putting up real earnings. However, even those appear to have found some buyers last week I just wouldn't touch them myself. If we hit a recession at some point I'd change my strategy.
This always works since the financial Journalists don't know anything about trading or the stock market dynamics except for those in Barrons & FT.