SI has been ranging from 18 to 21 over the past few weeks. And it will continue to range until the chart says otherwise.
You have to be insane to buy physical silver right now. Apmex bar is $27.31. Per the website "As low as $7.29 per bar over spot". Spot is $19.71 right now. How can you possibly expect to make any money with that spread? SLV at $18.13 seems like a no brainer even with the expense ratio. Personally, I am looking to get back in some GLD at some point but I think you need to get in slightly lower than right now.
Or more likely, any given day. Not insane, but, without a skill and someone who bought into dooms-day theories.
I got a swing trade long with GLD just now a bit off the low for the year but under $151 so that works for me. Of course, there is a bit of risk here that other central banks can't keep up with the Fed so USD is not done yet. I am so over exposed to USD though right now I have to do something and have wanted some gold for a bit.