Buy June Gold

Why?

 

Someone has to take the other side, Shagi

 

Interesting data from GVZ, volatility index for the GLD etf: it set new lifetime lows over the past two weeks as follows:

02/08/2011 15.61
02/10/2011 15.49
02/15/2011 15.23
02/16/2011 15.13

History only goes back to 2008 on this, so these are basically multi-year lows in gold's volatility.
With all that's going on, I'm taking a relatively agnostic view of what's next. My net deltas are presently short, but my risk profile is a smile: any movement of more than a couple of percent on either side will make me increasing amounts of money on that side, whether long or short. Basically, it's a complex strangle.
This is all set and ready for a huge breakout to one side or the other. While I'm leaning towards thinking it might be down, I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket, not with this market at the quietest it's been in years.

 

In big bull or bear moves, you are better off using more technical analysis than fundamentals ie: fun on the back burners, tech on the front burners for the cook/traders

 

MY bad, I see now that you have a strangle

 

What would it take to drive gold below 1300 or 1250 .... based on the past few years, if the stock market remains strong, it seems a slim chance. I don't see a catalyst.

 

Im not the one to answer, I just trade what I see, IMO the one that forcast to much are not trading very well if at all

 

Gold currently at 1396. could be an interesting week. It seems a break above the highs of 1432 would definitely be a strong move to new highs.

 

I get worried sick about my position when market starts going up in a straight line day after day. It maybe a rewind of what happened in Silver & Gold on 19 March 2008 although before that massive break there were signs it was coming. I don't see those signs but history may not repeat itself so I'm ready to run for the door on a moment's notice if this craziness continues.

 

Why do you get worried sick? I have never heard of a trader making more profit because he worried about a position. You are long in a bull market. Just trade your normal bull market strategy, and let the results take care of themselves.