Why are you hoping for a gap down? I am not disturbed by the small swings. GDX is up 3% today! GLD at new closing highs!
nice call! i am glad you pay attention to my thread "Why Gold is a bad investment" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=223320
I did...my call is to buy gold but buy MORE stocks. Gold underperforms as it has a smaller beta than stocks, but it hedges tail risk.
Hey Noddy: Nice trading there! I am following GLD (not the stocks index). Could today's gap turn to an exhaustion gap?
My experience with commodities is that there can be shortages. They don't trade the same way as stocks. That is, no one can find more gold instantaneously if all the Chinese residents want to buy to hedge inflation. On the other hand, companies can always issue more shares, and we have indeed seen that, eg. with Linkedin IPO, etc. (Technically this is known as positive skew.) Today's gap might be exhaustion, but I probably only reverse myself under 50 SMA. In 1980, we had many gaps up.