Mozilo is dishonest. He knew this shit was coming down the pike, he was selling shares like mad, but he was playing cheerleader until the end. Now he's telling it like it is, but that's probably only because he's scared of lawsuits. I don't care about his laurels, I'm not going to buy the stock of a company run by a liar. Well maybe in the low 20s to cover my shorts. Martin
The stock has gapped down twice in one week. Buying here is just wishful thinking and simply guessing where a bottom for the stock may be and where CFC eventually ends up. The stock has broken below 30 and closed below that support level. Way too early to go long on a turn around play like this. Never try and pick bottoms on stocks that have so many problems and uncertainties and the stock behaving as it has. Risk is far to great to the downside. Nothing is indicating this stock has found its bottom. The pattern indicates the contrary in fact. Couple that with god knows what will happen in the subprime/real estate/ housing sector in the coming months. It's just not a smart trade to be jumping in right here and guessing it is the bottom. Good Luck on your long positions If you haven't gotten stopped out already. I'll wait and watch.
Like mad? CFC has 593 MILLION shares outstanding. Average volume presently running 17 MILLION per day. About 2.7 MILLION shares per hour. In contrast aggregate insider selling about 200,000 per WEEK. Furthermore, if this is consistent in both size and frequency, quite possibly pre-announced. Same spirit as Rule 144. IF this mad selling stems from options, may have required vesting or staggered vesting. So you're short? You mean after it's moved? You mean based upon media limelight? Yep, CEO's generally undermine their own positions (both corporate and financial). Particularly IF they have yet MORE stock to sell (like mad). A stock and a company are correlated but mutually exclusive. Though one could never convince Michael Scott of that. Other than running operations, and as importantly.........the ability to RELEASE news deemed to be credible, Mozilo's inconsequential. You might give a little thought to CFC's specialist. Afterall, "he" opens the stock each day. Mozilo doesn't. He's opens the front door. In fact, the specialist is the entity most married to the stock. Day in day out. Perpetually. Lot more moola at stake. Lastly, there's a neckline at $30ish. It's repelled 5 or 6 times over the last 3 years. Until proven otherwise, it's fairly potent.
<a href="http://www.callwriter.com/newsletter/images/cfc-insidertrading.jpg">Like mad.</a> 8 million shares in 2007 alone. That's 1.5% of outstanding shares, sold by the CEO in 7 months when he was crowing about how Countrywide was going to be the only mortgage specialist left standing. Volume is totally irrelevant, that's just day traders punting shares back and forth, but Mozilo is selling and selling only. Since May 10, 2006. Added on Jan 29, 2007. So, no, it has nothing to do with the media limelight. Martin
$30 ish, emphasis is on ish, is a magnet. You'll note I guessed on the pre-announced selling before I learned today, inside sales were "pre-arranged". Sliver relative to float. Now.............the sailient point: NO CEO, of any company, is going to go on nationwide media, to sing woe is me, unless he wanted to drive the price down (albeit temporarily). Now just why would he want to drive the price down? And...........why THEN? Because he has yet MORE stock to sell and he wants to receive LESS? Nope, CFC isn't my best idea. Just the flavor of the week. Last week. Been buying the types of stocks I usually buy today. Gritting my teeth and weathering the rotation OUT of uranium so I don't lose the position I painstakingly built, but this CFC should oscillate around support. Will add on a 20 day HHV. If it doesn't get there, well........then I won't add. "News" valid or fluff is out. Brand new month. Given the advance/decline line, possibly mild market capitulation. Lots of volume. Ax is flush with new inventory. I know you're trying to twist the knife, but............2.4% isn't scathing and I got other concerns. More like a pin prick.
AHM has gone to shit and could be close to bankruptcy with a 90% loss since being frozen monday after they retracted their dividend, anyone buying any mortgage related anything is naive. great time to short