Buy and Hold

I know in the environment of ES scalper this is may be the wrong place to ask - but let me try.

I am currently reading Richard Bernstein's Navigate the Noise and I am impressed of his ideas to select stocks and information to probably beat the S&P.

I know this may sound like:
"If i use a 10 and 30 moving average and trade crossover always on and trade the ES on a 3 minute chart - can I make a living of that?"

and I know there can't be a straight answer but it will give you an idea in wich way I try to work on this.

Let say I screen for:
EPS surprise last earning a cent or better
Dividen yield >= 2
Relative strenght to S&P > 1
Only Companies listed in the S&P 500

and throw a dart on this 40 companies to select 10 is this basicly a good idea or am I doom to fail for any reason?

I would be very thankfully for any advice. Books, websites or anything else.

Is there a way to backtest such things without a bloomberg or reuters terminal?
I know zacks offerd a 30day trial a year a go but I can't find it now.

Thanks

 

Investors Business Daily says this about that....... regardless of how good the fundamentals are, before you enter the market, check the charts.

With this I completely agree.

Btw, that was funny about the ES trading system. Hey have you done any backtesting on that?

 

inandlong thanks for replay.

I agree on the chart thing but as I'm coming from watching the chart all day long I want to look a bit over my border line.

It's hard to look on 100 year Dow Chart and say: "He buy and hold is the poorest thing you can do"

Course, when I look on a 5 year chart it would better to stay in bonds but when you look at todays numbers, probably there are better times ahead of us.


Yes I have backtested it but go back before 1995

It should only be an example. When a guy says something like that I would say: "Well it makes sense, on a 3 minute basis its better to go with the trend instead of trading against it. If you trade with IB and you can automate it so that you dont have to sit the whole day in front of the computer and you are well capitalized try it.

So I hope that somebody come up with a saying like that on my good dividend surprise earning and relative strength thing

But as I said appreciate any suggestion.

 

Dude! What the hell did you just say???

Dammit...STOP DISTRACTING ME WITH PICTURES LIKE THAT!

peace

axeman

 

It seems you might be thinking I am saying stick to the charts. Just to be sure, I am not. What I am saying is that after you have selected the candidates with your fundies criteria you should then look at the charts to see if they look good there also. Of course, your idea might be to exclude chartwork totally.

 

Inandlong I got you right on your suggestion. Probably my answer wasn’t right formulated. I don’t want to throw away what I know about charts but want to add a few fundamentals and combine it. Good fundamentals and buy if the chart looks good and hit a new high or what ever.

Axeman I’m sorry hopefully I can bring your focus back to the markets with a picture that is more on topic.

 

Screw the charts! Bring back the girl! I really want to get to know her.


Laeticia? Honey is that you?