Morning Copper Market Report Fri 01 Nov 2013 07:48:58 CT Copper prices have posted moderate gains this morning, and are closing in posting a new weekly high. While the copper market tried to overcome outside market adversity yesterday, the market was unable to hold in positive territory in the face of broad-based negative macroeconomic developments on Thursday and from a general downshift in market sentiment from a revival of US Fed tapering fears. Copper also found outside market pressure from noted declines in precious metals prices, which some traders felt left the copper market more dependent on classic fundamental issues. While the Chinese PMI reading overnight was not widely seen as being definitively upbeat, that report may improve the outlook for Chinese copper demand expectations. Other traders feel that for copper to have posted gains this morning in the face of a 6,197 ton gain in weekly Shanghai copper stocks, suggests that the copper market may be embracing a more positive demand environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commentary: ...or more likely someone is holding this market up artificially.
Another possibility is the the Fed repetitively tries to taper and untaper. That keeps economies swinging up and down without either taking off or crashing. Since Bernanke's May taper comment, that kind of seems to be the case.
Excellent observation...and that's "right on". I don't know about you, but I'm getting a little sea-sick from this up and down crappy action. Only strat for this action in the equity markets is to short puts after a down move and short calls after an up-swing. Risky, but quite rewarding. Buying options is disasterous in this kind of market....where the moves are not big enough to cover the premiums. Copper will follow equities IMHO....so the same applies....but with the leverage of futures, you don't really need options.
Only if Yellen keeps her foot on the gas pedal. Once she hits the brakes, look out below for the yellow metal.
Not necessarily. Gold will adjust to taper/untaper. Look at QE ending in 3/30/2010 and 6/30/2011. Virtually no impact on gold.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beijings-taper-challenge-2013-11-04?link=mw_home_kiosk This article could presage quite a route in the price of copper. It's all about the ending of QE and the impact on China. Tons of patience required as no one knows when Yellen will pull the plug. I say watch the jobs reports. That's the key. But I don't think there will any improvement in hiring until spring of 2014 when the aftereffects of the Obamacare debacle start to diminish.
Interesting move today in light of strong US equities: was up early AM, but now down 2 pennies. One might have logically expected the opposite to occur. But then again, this is no logical market.
Morning Copper Market Report Thu 07 Nov 2013 07:28:03 CT December copper came under pressure Wednesday in the face of what "should" have been supportive US equity market action, supportive US currency market action and even in the face of definitively strong precious metals price action. Lukewarm copper price action on Wednesday might have reflected market disappointment from slack US private jobs results and soft US weekly mortgage applications data, In addition, copper also saw negative talk regarding declining LME copper stock levels as there were ideas that recent declines were more the result of financing activity and not improving physical demand. Surprisingly, copper hasn't garnered any strong support yet from an upcoming Chinese official planning meeting that starts over the weekend For some traders, that lack of support suggests the whole infrastructure demand story from China has temporarily gone stale. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commentary: Could this be the beginning of the end for Copper ? Stay tuned !!!