The carnage continues for the red metal as (finally !) the grim reality of lower demand in face of higher supply permeates the market. We're down 10 cents this morning.
Much more and positions done in front three heaviest contracts. It is one of the Commodities I don't hedge much using options when I sell the futures, prem is outrageous and getting out decently is often impossible. But I do use other instruments for some short term hedging. One thing I learned the hard way dealing with Commodities, for me, fundamentals are useless, COT is useless, these markets will go the way they wish to go for no reason at all. I never have any idea how low is low or how high is high. So they in a way are so much easier to trade, but I do not swing trade, I use weekly/monthly charts, so my duration is much longer and hope for many rollovers. I use .40 from entry as first and only target to take profit on half and leave protective stop at breakeven. We now have it programmed of what to do when, but when I did it manually, only checked for new trades on weekends. That's what long term trading is about, spending as little time doing it, otherwise you might convince yourself of making a change, end up seeing the money and getting out with a small profit, only to watch that trade become a $50k per contract plus profit if you just sat on your hands. The mistakes I made when I was young, LOL.
Metals Stocks April 18, 2013, 8:04 a.m. EDT Gold prices rebound, but copper struggles http://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...s-to-18-month-lows-2013-04-18?dist=beforebell Meanwhile, May copper futures on Thursday fell 3 cents, or 3.15%, to $3.10 a pound, after earlier touching on levels last seen in early October 2011. The industrial metal on Wednesday sank 3.6%, with a ramp up in demand concerns after China, a major commodities consumer, posted weaker-than-expected growth for the first quarter.
The May contract saw a $3.06 print this morning !!! And there's a huge 15 cent range today. After doing nothing for weeks, this guy is really rockin now !!
Everything holding up today...except (you guessed it).....copper. 8-12 weeks ago, this thing just refused to crater. Now it refuses to rally.
There was good opportunities to sell Gold on April 9 and sell more Copper on the 11th just using simply trendlines. Platinum made triple top end of Febuary on Monthlies, all the metals are in downtrends, take a nice size profit of 5-10k per contract on half position then hang on for bigger ride if there is one to be had. Only way for me to make the homerun trades is sitting on my hands and recheck on weekends. But if one constantly checking the market, you can talk oneself out of a great trade, like I did in my youth.
Good stuff Handle...and so true, almost prophetic. I remember a story from years ago about a trader who took a position in wheat and kept doubling his winning position. Ended up with Millions...and barely watched the market.
Goldman Sachs cuts copper forecasts April 22, 2013, 4:44 a.m. EDT LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at Goldman Sachs on Monday cut their 3,6 and 12-month copper forecasts, after a heavy selloff over the past two months, citing growth concerns in China and bearish technical indicators. The forecasts were lowered to $7,500 per tonnes from $8,000 on a three-month basis, to $8,000 from $9,000 for six months and to $7,000 per tonnes from $8,000 for 12 months. "More recently copper has underperformed other major base metals prices owing in part to the fact that copper was the only metal trading well above its cost curve (fueling fears of more extreme downside potential in the case of weakening global growth), as well as an increasing consensus that the market is headed for surplus in 2014," the analysts said in a note. Copper for May delivery dropped 3 cents, or 1%, to $3.12 a pound on Monday.