But what about copper ?

counter anything on CNBC haha

 

CNBC and MarketWatch are not the same !

There are some good articles on Marketwatch....and that was excellent technical analysis with a bit of fundamental analysis as well. To be a good trader, I think you need both.

Point is: copper could go back to $4....incredible as that seems.

 

it was a joke.. not meant to poke at ya so much.. you think theres probably a correlation to interest rates and copper.. like inflationary type of thing.. meaning copper follows inflation and demand..

 

yes, but IN THIS ECONOMY, higher interest rates indicate "no more fed".
Big difference from earlier "economies"...that were market-driven.

 

I think you may be on to something there. I know the forex market I am trading in 2013 is totally different than the market I was trading in 2012.

Unfortunately, I have never been a good student of rates.

I think the boys that are going to have a clue are the boys who have a clue where rates are going.

 

Look, this rate stuff is hard to discern.
Rates will likely go up very gradually at first.
However, if they start to accelerate, then money will come out of equities and commodities in a risk-off move.
Gold, silver, and copper will decline in a big way.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it could, if the Fed loses control.
Remember the song "Hold On Loosely" by 38 special ?
Well, the Fed needs to sing "Hold on Tightly".

 

Alcoa's positive announcement has had no effect on CME Copper futures.
Interesting.
Could be a case of "can't fool the markets"....i.e. it doesn't believe the bullish case for aluminum.

 

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/01/0...edium=eNL&utm_campaign=FUT_eNL&_LID=103722366
Great, great article with excellent analysis.
I love the quip:
"It is hard to justify copper at $3.50 to $4.00 per pound – or even at lower prices – without the influence of Chinese imports. The average cost of production – even after including copper from mines with lower ore grades in Chile, which is more expensive to extract – is still far below current prices. If this commodity lived by the rules of many other commodities, prices would have to plummet to catch up"

So what's holding it up ? Obviously speculators...of Chinese influence.
Why ? They're holding a mega-ton of copper.
They have much to lose on a copper price plunge.

 

Volume for the March copper contract is thru the roof today.
Was up 3 pennies, now up only 1.

 

Copper again being highlighted in an article on Marketwatch:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/01/09/eight-smart-trades-if-china-goes-bust/