... but is it doable in reality ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by janbillian, Jun 6, 2020.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    “Every time there’s a pullback, or a new opportunity, the answer is to back a great leader and trust them to make the right call.“
     
    #431     Mar 30, 2025
    janbillian likes this.
  2. Nike (NKE) will be hurt, without a doubt, by China responding to Trump's tarifs with tarifs on imported goods from the US.

    The new show models do get rave reviews, I believe the company will become the world's #1 among sports apparelel companies and may (of course, I can't say for certain) see its ATH, around 180 US$, in late 2028.



    I write so because the longest stretch from ATH to ATH was 7 years (Nike went public in 1980).

    I'd still be a buyer, though I don't see a short-term rally.

    [​IMG]
     
    #432     Mar 31, 2025
  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    NKE doesn’t look like a buy.
    Me think it could hit 40$ (1/3 loss) ?

    https://fullratio.com/stocks/nyse-nke/pe-ratio

    Looks like its PE is cheap historical wise.

    Not interested in NKE but thanks for sharing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2025
    #433     Mar 31, 2025
    janbillian likes this.
  4. @Sekiyo , thanks for this opinion on Nike (NKE).

    I now think the shares hitting 180 US$ in december 2028 is a challenge ... very nasty sell-off, the Trump tariffs are of course a big challenge for apparel companies needing cheap manufacturing hubs in Asia.

    But maybe CEOs will come together and change president's Trumps mind on this.

    Share price closed yesterday at 55.58 US$ - I bought shares and still believe they'll rebound and see a new all-time high, but I fear I was too optimistic with "end of 2028".

    If the share price triples within the next 5 years, it'd still be a great return. This I think is totally within reach.

    [​IMG]
     
    #434     Apr 4, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  5. As a reminder, calculating with historical average returns, we are now in "green light" territory in the Nasdaq 100 / NDX.

    I often wrote that I consider the "vomiting lows" of october 2002, 23 years ago, as fair value for this index when we were in bubble territory in early 2000. The Nasdaq 100 had lost almost 84% back then from its high in early 2000 .

    And that I expect this index to compound at roughly 13% a year (including dividends). I'd never short US stock indices, right now I'd be a buyer !

    [​IMG]
     
    #435     Apr 9, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  6. I have no connection to the author of the book, David Aronson, nor the presenter in this video. It was suggested to me by YouTube.

    But it looks as if there's some serious value to it. If any of you who read this thread know the book, I'd love to hear opinions from you !

     
    #436     Apr 15, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  7. & interview with the author, David Aronson, took place in 2016.

     
    #437     Apr 16, 2025