“Every time there’s a pullback, or a new opportunity, the answer is to back a great leader and trust them to make the right call.“
Nike (NKE) will be hurt, without a doubt, by China responding to Trump's tarifs with tarifs on imported goods from the US. The new show models do get rave reviews, I believe the company will become the world's #1 among sports apparelel companies and may (of course, I can't say for certain) see its ATH, around 180 US$, in late 2028. I write so because the longest stretch from ATH to ATH was 7 years (Nike went public in 1980). I'd still be a buyer, though I don't see a short-term rally.
NKE doesn’t look like a buy. Me think it could hit 40$ (1/3 loss) ? https://fullratio.com/stocks/nyse-nke/pe-ratio Looks like its PE is cheap historical wise. Not interested in NKE but thanks for sharing.
@Sekiyo , thanks for this opinion on Nike (NKE). I now think the shares hitting 180 US$ in december 2028 is a challenge ... very nasty sell-off, the Trump tariffs are of course a big challenge for apparel companies needing cheap manufacturing hubs in Asia. But maybe CEOs will come together and change president's Trumps mind on this. Share price closed yesterday at 55.58 US$ - I bought shares and still believe they'll rebound and see a new all-time high, but I fear I was too optimistic with "end of 2028". If the share price triples within the next 5 years, it'd still be a great return. This I think is totally within reach.
As a reminder, calculating with historical average returns, we are now in "green light" territory in the Nasdaq 100 / NDX. I often wrote that I consider the "vomiting lows" of october 2002, 23 years ago, as fair value for this index when we were in bubble territory in early 2000. The Nasdaq 100 had lost almost 84% back then from its high in early 2000 . And that I expect this index to compound at roughly 13% a year (including dividends). I'd never short US stock indices, right now I'd be a buyer !
I have no connection to the author of the book, David Aronson, nor the presenter in this video. It was suggested to me by YouTube. But it looks as if there's some serious value to it. If any of you who read this thread know the book, I'd love to hear opinions from you !
As a short reminder, for newbies who visit this forum & thread maybe for the first time ... The broad US stockmarket is a bonafide wealth generating machine, it'll rise long-term with 100% certainty, and most calculations use 10% cagr for the S&P 500 - that's what this index has delivered p.a., on average for the last 70 years. My take is, the Nasdaq 100 / NDX - it went "online" so to speak in 1985 with a starting level of 125 points - may continue to outperform the SPX . I just re-visited my idea, basically I think the "vomiting lows" of october 2002 (now 23 years ago !) were fair value for this index in early 2000 when it began to crumble. Vomiting level back then ? Around 780 points (from a high of around 4,800 points). That amounts to a yearly compounding rate of 13% ! Beats losing your shirt trying to daytrade, I'd say. Now I did this calculation for 2025 -> quite simply, where would we stand with this fair value cagr figure for early 2025 ? 16,580 points. Almost exactly the "Trump lows" after his punitive tarriffs ... just to show the power of this index.
End of 2030 ... this is the date I'd say a new all-time high for Nike (NKE) is likely. I believe they'll outperform the S&P 500 and NDX for the next 5 years, I'd be a buyer here still (has rallied since I last suggested buying its shares). Now pre-market opening 61.80 US$.
Dudes & Dudettes, if you can find the time ... take the time and invest 74 minutes. Released just now ! Again an A-lister as interview partner, TCI founder Christopher Hohn :