... but is it doable in reality ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by janbillian, Jun 6, 2020.

  1. I'm flat in the Nasdaq 100, have switched into shares of Imperial Brands.

    As of now, I suck at market timing in indices, but hope to become better - longterm of course, the Nasdaq 100 will continue to rock.

    But in the Elliott Wave group I'm a member of, the expectancy is we'll see the NDX below 18,000 points this year before a big rally begins that'll last until autumn of next year.

    [​IMG]
     
    #371     Oct 15, 2024
  2. Imperial Brands (ISIN : GB0004544929) looks very strong chartwise. Dividend yield as of now around 6.7%.

    Very shareholderfriendly capitaldistribution.

    I don't think it'll see its all-time high in this decade, but I still see 50% appreciation potential in the share price + the dividend until 2030.

    It may become a potential takeovertarget.

    [​IMG]
     
    #372     Oct 17, 2024
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    You, sir, have been at it since 2005, 10 years before I joined.

    What is your conclusions and any words of wisdoms for us?

    Best wishes.
     
    #373     Oct 17, 2024
    janbillian likes this.
  4. I'm not a market wizard at all, all my wisdom is contained in my thread.

    As expected, had some hits and some misses. For you @ironchef , a thought experiment. Imagine that market efficiency could be measured by some formula (I believe this will never be possible, but who knows).

    And the efficiency thermometer would show "Efficiency now : 100%". It'd mean that price forecasts in any asset class would be impossible - because totally random events are simply unforecastable.

    Also worth remembering how wellpaid analysts at big banks get it wrong. You do know about the Rod Hall / Apple disaster.

    UBS got it wrong with their sell rating on PMI, too. Very rarely are "sell ratings" given because that basically guarantees the company won't do business with the bank giving this rating.

    URL : https://research.ibb.ubs.com/openaccess/compliance/233509_1_new.html
     
    #374     Oct 18, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you for the coaching.
     
    #375     Oct 18, 2024
    janbillian likes this.
  6. #376     Oct 18, 2024
  7. #377     Oct 22, 2024
  8. SIG's founder Jeff Yass has become a multi-billionaire, thanks in part because the SIG ventures was a superearly bird in ByteDance, this company was valued at around 400 billion US$ at its peak !

    This is one of its employees, very worth your time !

     
    #378     Oct 27, 2024
  9. Because of David ...

    I've bought some shares of Peloton Interactive (PTON). The company went public in 2019, then lost > 95% of its ATH because it cannot yet turn a profit and investors downright escaped from what was considered a sinking ship.

    Now, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital fame has become a bull, and the company has formed a partnership with Costco.

    But is not yet booking a profit, which is worrisome.

    The products do get very high ratings. Einhorn's reasoning is even if they don't become profitable, its assets may become attractive for buyers in the sports field.

    Pre-marketopening price is 6.43 US$ today (10/28/2024). [​IMG]
     
    #379     Oct 28, 2024
  10. #380     Oct 31, 2024