It's holiday in my native Germany, but capital markets of course never sleep. Peter Brandt, interviewed by Jack Schwager for "Unknown Market wizards", has a pretty astounding track record as a market forecaster. He is the founder of Factor Services LLC . He has switched from bullish to bearish for the Bitcoin (BTCUSD), now has a price target of around 80% below its ATH. That'd mean around 15,000 U$ - currently trading at around 57,700 US$ (may 1st, 2024) . https://www.coindesk.com/markets/20...18-collapse-says-the-bull-market-may-be-over/
If you are satisfied with a 200% return in 16 years aka tripling your money in 16 years, I stick to my price target of around 56,000 - 60,000 points in the NDX / Nasdaq 100 in the year 2040 . Volatiliy calibrated ATR has generated great returns on the long-side (remember, try NOT to short the US Stockmarket, its underlying strong upward drift will eventually wipe out short-sellers. Google for Jim Chanos and Kynikos Associates), and the most recent buy signal is fresh !
In addition to Markus Keil, I introduce another german star trader, Max Schulze. Max began in 2015 with 30,000 €, now his equity has grown to close to 1.5 million € . In 9 years ! The book shown is in english, "The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence" and is written by Stephen Briese .
It doesn't matter what your backtest told you, when you start losing money your dedication will wane. Also, I doubt there is any indicator based trading that works at all.
My favorite market wizard is, as of now, David Tepper of Appaloosa Management fame, I try to watch him as closely as I can. The newest 13-F Filings show he has increased his bet on Alibaba Holdings (BABA) massively. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/appaloosa-management-lp
It seems Mr. Shkreli was / is right . https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/gamestop-gme-q1-earnings.html?__source=newsletter|breakingnews
I, too, don't see clouds reversing the bull market as of now. https://www.tradealgo.com/news/goldman-ups-s-p-500-target-for-the-third-time-says-6-300-is-possible An easy calculation worth pursuing : The S&P 500 was certainly overvalued in early 2000, less than the NDX, though. The high was back then at around 1,550 points - I thinks the fair value was 50% below this level, around 780 points. Now compound with 9% annually, and I'd say we could be around 6,800 points at the end of 2025 . If you have yet invested in a low cost index fund yet, now is a great time to begin - the S&P 500 is NOT overvalued !
Back to a single stock analysis, British American Tobacco (ISIN : GB0002875804) . The company does face challenges - in the USA, a big market, regulators make life difficult, and acquiring Reynolds in 2017 was, in retrospect, a big mistake, resulting in a big writedown announced in december 2023. The business in Russia is done and the company had to pay a hefty penalty because it did business with North Korea. The share price lost 10% after the writedown was announced, gapping, but now the price has closed the gap for a third time ... my impression, it may be upward, Imperial Brands style, for BATS from now on. The company has announced, in march 2024, a share buyback program lasting until late 2025. Dividend yield as of now 9.3% Must-read imho : https://eaglepointcapital.substack....for?r=6gq23&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true I'd be a buyer here, closing price yesterday (06/24/2024) 2,535 pence .