The Nasdaq 100 / NDX was in early 2000 (now 24 years) overvalued by any stretch of the imagination, topping out for years at around 5,200 points . It's not an exact science, valuation, but I'd say the fair value was around 2,500 points back then. I expect a growth of around 110% all ten years for this index (with the fair value as the base for this calculation), so in the year 2040 -> in 16 years -> we should be around 60,000 points.
May not agree with you completely but appreciate you sharing your thoughts and views. Last but not least, enjoyed reading your posts. Gave me a lot of food for thought.
Thanks for the kind words. It's so important to remember that with information now being processed at fractions of a second, markets are of course superefficient. Another words, it gets more and more difficult to find investment opportunities that may generate an excess return over the S&P 500 aka north of 10% a year.
Yesterday, 02/04/2024, General Electric has completed its spin-off of General Electric Vernova (ISIN : US36828A1016). The shares of General Electric itself of course have been adjusted down in their price, my entry price when I suggested buying the shares two months ago would now be around 109 US$. Closing price yesterday 136.47 US$ (Source : TradingView). Important to notice, otherwise it completely distort the price information. Chart of the original GE company share price (weekly) :
I've mentioned, with Bruce Kovner and especially David Tepper, two all-time greats. It is always worth listening to them when they speak. Will they get it right all the time ? No, of course not. Nobody will. My "good deed" - I hope I have saved at least one investor from listening or following the advice Robert Prechter gives, based on Elliott Wave theory. Mr Prechter is basically a bear since the big crash in 1987 (which he forecasted correctly), since then he's been wrong ... essentially all the time on the direction of the US Stock market. This is from 2011, I chuckle when I read it. I wonder how it is possible people buy his services because his track-record is so bad. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/your-money/20stra.html
Prechter Part II (from 1993, LATimes article) -> https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1993-06-11-fi-2172-story.html If you can market yourself smartly, it seems you can survive and make good money even with a horrible track record in this business.
Part III and final of my mini "Why following the advice of Robert Prechter will RUIN you !". If you still think, "Prechter may not be as bad as these forecasts make him appear to be", simply google for him. I don't know anyone with such a lousy track record as market forecaster.
Today (I write this 15 minutes before the US stock market opens), Tesla (TSLA) will report earnings. Close on 04/23/2024 was 142.05 US$ . My impression / opinion ? The smart money crowd has by and large ridden this bull and now is looking for better opportunities. Quote Ross Gerber (Gerber Kawasaki), he can be followed on Twitter/X : "What is Tesla worth? You can assign whatever PE you wish. We tend to look at growth rate. Now Tesla isn't growing and not sure how it will get back to growing... If they do $2.50 in EPS in 2024, don't know what they will earn in 2025. So $100 is looking like the next stop..." Ross Gerber was a big bull, correctly, on Tesla. I still think it's a great company, but now I'd not be a buyer and stay on the sidelines.
For the german readers of this thread (if there are any at all), I copy & paste this from my Facebook wall. This guy called Alfred Maydorn got it completely wrong with a company called Varta (VAR1 on Tradingview), he was bullish -> the share price has since then dropped almost 95% ! "Oh, Alfred, mein Alfred, was hast Du getan ? Vielleicht wird er mit Frank Thelen und Dirk Müller gemeinsam einen Fonds auflegen ? Frage ist, warum suchen sich Menschen nicht ein Betätigungsfeld, in dem sie wirklich was können ? Oder gehen einfacher Arbeit nach z.B. als Reinigungskraft oder Verkäufer im Supermarkt ? Der Vermögensschaden, den o.g. Herren anrichten, ist enorm !"
I suggested buying shares of Koninklijke Philips ((ISIN: NL0000009538) when they traded around 12.80 € (page 28, #274) Today, the share price has made a big jump, reason is the expected penalty for the damage by a product sold is much lesser than analysts and the Philips C-suite expected. Please read https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/04/philips-reaches-us-sleep-apnea-apparatus-deal-for-e1-billion/ if it is of interest to you. Shares now trade at around 27.57 €, up more than 100% fold - my price target has been reached (I wrote the buy recommendation in october of 2022) and I'd be a seller here.