The free webinar trading maverick Markus Keil hosted is now available on YouTube. Markus is as of now one of my native Germany's best daytraders, hugely profitable in a game where most investors lose money. The name is "Footprint workshop", it begins @ 4:40 and is around 42 minutes long from then on. Note : language spoken is german .
Tom Basso will publish a new book in a few days, here he is a recent interview from 2022. His favorite trendfollowing indicators are Keltner Bands, Bollinger Bands, and Donchian Channels. Tom is one of the few who's become a multimillionaire as a trader selfmade, he's a chemical engineer by training.
There are great news out there for the US stock market, the Nasdaq 100 index has switched back to its longterm UP mode. It's worth remembering that anyone, as Warren Buffett correctly noted repeatedly, betting against the USA will lose his shirt ... because the american stock market will, though not linearily, continue to grow. Another words, it may well be that we have seen the worst with the big decline beginning in late 2021 and we're back to annualized gains of around 5, maybe 6%. Use TradingView for the indicator "Volatility calibrated ATR", it worked very well on timeframe daily on the Nasdaq. Also, the 1,200 day MA (very long timeframe) was touched from above, which gave great signals in the past, too.
As an addition to my bullish outlook on the US stock market, this short video narrated by money management legend Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame shows how important it is to start as early as possible, because 10% a year, to be expected in the US stockmarket longterm (aka that's the expected return of the SPX and NDX including dividends), compounds when you only invest 200 bucks a month. Pause @ 03:06 minutes ->
As most of you are aware of, I'm very critical of shorttermtrading / daytrading as it can incur significant costs due to the spread & commissions paid by the investor. Few have big edges like my fellow german Markus Keil, many don't have an edge and will lose. But there are, imho, opportunities out there for investors with a longer term horizon will to buy and hold, maybe, if possible, for decades. I think Altria (ISIN : US02209S1033) is a strong buy here, currently trading at around 45 US$ . Why do I think so ? First, whenever the share price dived > 50% in the past, it rallied smartly in the past, back to another all-time high, of course not over night. I think Altria's share price may see its all-time high until 2030, with the next 7 years. Another the share price may appreciate by more than 50% in this timeframe. Plus, you get a juicy dividend, and if you can reinvest it, this can of course boost your future returns even more ... I hope readers of my thread will take the time and read -> https://www.dividendgrowthinvestor....QzEIjlL45HxsUjoKqbIEjwf4HDR8zZtB0bWd-sY7TL4Cg
That site, https://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2016/08/altria-delivers-dependable-dividend.html, has According to yahoo finance, the price of Altria (MO) adjusted for splits and dividends was 0.233073 on 19680102. and the highest adjusted close in 2014 was 51.270000 on 20141218. This is a total return of 51.270000 / 0.233073 == $219.97 per dollar invested and reinvested (12.17% compound annual growth rate). It's a good long-term return, but a lot less than what that website has.
@ph1l , the website I posted the URL to showed the returns until 2003. Had you been a shareholder, you would have to add the value of Philip Morris International AND the dividends this entity pays, because what was announced in 2007 ... https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna20494757 was realized in 2008, quote "Altria shareholders received one share of PMI for every share of Altria common stock." Source / URL : https://www.springerprofessional.de...f-of-philip-morris-international-inc/16305216 Also, Kraft was spun off, Altria shareholder received 0.7 shares of this entity for every Altria share they held. Another words 1 share of Altria in 2007 = 1 share of Altria, 0.7 shares of Kraft and 1 share PMI after the spin-offs. Needs to be part of "Dividends reinvested" calculation since 2008 and is probably to difficult to incorporate in standard websites. If Altria reaches its ATH and the dividend remains at least stable, it's a good strategy. Of course, nothing can be guaranteed as every company can, theoretically, go bankrupt. A possible higher return in capital markets means increased risk, no matter what the strategy.
Regardless of what past returns were (with or without the spin offs), Altria appears to mostly sell tobacco products in the U.S. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.n...1231_HTM_i15062ca98227434086141b426450a5cb_16 And tobacco use is declining. https://news.gallup.com/poll/1717/tobacco-smoking.aspx https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tobacco_use_in_the_United_States.svg So, Altria might not be smokin' for investors now as good as they were in the past. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/altria-mo-q4-earnings-report-2022-11675259807
@ph1l , great input by you , but leisure & addiction product makers were a great bet in the past. Peter Lynch, back in 1990, suggested buying shares of Altria (then Philip Morris), with sales according to your data source being on the decline. And look what the annual return since then would have been. My line of reasoning is - of course, it is only an opinion of many - Altria will continue to do relatively well, but the majority of the gains will be the result of dividend income (I think management's stated goal is that around 80% of the generated cash flow will be paid out to investors). If it continues to raise the dividend yearly, we may see 1.20 US$ / quarter in 2033 (as of now, 04/19/2023, 0.94 US$ / quarter) + a share price appreciation of around 30 - 50% until then. We shall see.
Regarding Markus Kreil your favorite daytrading Mentor with Orderflow trading, he trades highly propriety and not mechanical, when you watch his videos. You cannot guess where he is doing his exit in advance. He also uses much trailing stops but when he made a 2 year backtest with his customer Level 2 data, he said, that trailing is not good and one should use a static stop instead. But he is always doing the opposite in his youtube videos. Second, his former website was blackboxtrading.de but no more reachable. I guess there were some negative reviews, because on trustpilot with his new VIXX-tradingfloor website there are only positive review in a very short time period too. These are some red flags. Actually I am not sure he is not tricking others with sim accounts when trading or claiming his very good track record on his own trading. The last point is, he as an semi-automated orderflow system now, where the entries are made automatic, why he is not doing the exit too ? Because he said that about his stops he surely tested the exits too, but certainly did not get good results, otherwise he could post it. And he never trades with his automated entries from his backtests too when he is doing his livestream youtube videos on his trading. That is too funny at all. Bear in mind, that he is maybe just a show-off and not that profitable, or at least you cannot replicate it. So why spend then 5000 Euro for his 80 hours videos on his course ? There are some red flags really here.