Nassim Taleb of Anti-fragility fame has - I actually just now received what seems to be an "old hat" - changed his stripes on the value of Bitcoin (BTCUSD on Tradingview). He's now in the Warren Buffett camp of cryptocurrency nay-sayers and see its inner value at "zero" aka total wipeout for those who hold Bitcoin(s). It seems impossible to value a cryptocurrency, for this very simple reason I would not invest a single Dollar into them, I consider them too risky. Soure / URL for Taleb quote -> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-bitcoin-is-worth-zero.html My personal favorite investment as of now is British American Tobacco (BATS), price / earnings ratio is below the market PE, they've decided to buyback shares and I like the chart, and of course the dividend yield. Share price as of now 3,346 pence (listed @ the London Stock exchange) . I think the share price may see its all-time high again with the next 9 years.
Paul Tudor Jones II, one of the original market wizards (Volume I is a must read, was published in 1988) and a real all-star great in money management, has become very bearish for bonds and stocks, echoing David Tepper. Source / URL : https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/pau...ght-now.html?__source=newsletter|breakingnews
For those of you capable in the german language, Markus Keil is an exceptionally gifted german daytrader / scalper, he offers mentoring / coaching for a full year, against a one-time fee of course, but his free videos offer some value, too. He updates his market views almost daily, this is from today (monday, 05/09/2022), spot-on in his scenario for the NDX (bearish below 12,500 points).
For those of you who, like me, think the Nasdaq100 / NDX may continue to fall, I've found two indicators possibly of help when it comes to timing the long entry (then "buy and hold", preferably no market timing for known reasons). They are called "Super Trend V" and "volatility calibrated ATR" and can both be found on TradingView. Use the timeframe 2D (two days), they are now both in bear mode. When the first one of the two will flash a buy signal on this time-frame, it may be a good time to go long, although we could of course still fall further. One never knows for sure. Here's the URL ->
This is a brilliant post. You negated your entire thesis with that line about. It basically says "I dunno'" and you shrug your shoulders. Then you paste some buy and sell labels at convenient points on the chart to make yourself look smart. But that is not smart. What really was the point of that post? A monthly chart of NQ going back 20 years? Seriously? Your two indicators, ""Super Trend V" and "volatility calibrated ATR" are BULLSHIT! They are flashing bear mode NOW on NQ, after it has dropped 30 Percent this year?!? NOW IS THE TIME TO SHORT THE NQ?!? WT MOTHER F DUDE!
Let's shortly remember what it's all about. Finding a good entry for a long position, only go short in an US equity index if you've got an edge in market timing as the long term trend in US equities is long - investors who "short America" will lose their last shirt. Know that most investors who try to time the market lose money though many pretend in forums like this and others they're smart and generate alpha. Keltner channel break-out on the upperband (Timeframe 1W) or the above mentioned indicators, all get good results long-term.
Just an update on my "main man", David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, I posted a short interview with him in december 2021 (page 24 in this thread) ... he was 100% right, again - correctly anticipating rising rates and a strong stock market correction. It continues to pay off listening to him, I hope I'll catch his next big market outlook update and post it here. From 05/19/2022 ->
Markus Keil continues to rock, some amazing setups in his free daily market talks to be found on YouTube. Yesterday nailed the Nasdaq as he correctly identified 12,050 as an important "defense zone", below it the NDX would be a short candidate, and it was (fell below 11,700 points afterwards) ! The week before, it was a long setup in the BUND futures contract that hit bull's eye. It's completely in my native german language, Markus unfortunately does not speak english.
Today's market talk (07/01/2022), his run continues with a big winner in an oil short trade, explained @ 02:33 minutes. You need to be able to understand german as Markus only comments in his native german language. Markus is a big bull on Natural Gas (NG1! on TradingView), currently trades @ 5.75, he sees upside potential to 6.50US$ or even higher. Have fun with this great video, length is roughly 7 minutes :
%% THAT's old news \but sometimes its the best kind. Main trend on SPY benchmark....... = down YTD + still below 200 dma...........................................