A reminder of why an average annual return of 20% is already elite territory and only the very few will be able to generate it .... I see it when I observe market moves in various underlyings and how rarely a clear trend develops that would earn multiple "R"s in Van Tharp lingo. Often, too often, whipsaws occur. And a true legend like Bruce Kovner, an all-time great in the hall of fame, averaged around 21% p.a. as a professional money manager for Caxton, the firm he founded, when he was the Chief investment officer who had ultimate resposibility for how to allocate the capital, this is a short but essential read from 2011 :
Reflecting upon the buy / long setup I posted (page 12, posting #112) in Natural Gas, I'd now move the profit target higher, from 3.60 US$ (page 15, posting #147) to 5.00 US$ ! Reason ? I think this may be a real long term uptrend, giving a speculator who entered the trade in august 2020 the opportunity to profit from it. Buy setup was posted by me when Natgas traded @ 1.964 US$ .
I'm a bull for the pair GBP vs USD, I think it may run up to1.3500 or even higher. I'd go long now, it currently trades @ 1.30549 . SL I'd place @ 1.2850 . The short setup I posted on page 15 in this FX pair would have to be closed with a small loss, it's not valid anymore obviously.
I'm not quite sure what is the purpose of your posts. Having said that, I do believe you are reading the markets you present reasonably well. However, "reading the market" is quite a distinct endeavor from "trading" and that in turn quite distinct from "making money from trading". I hope you find what you are looking for. Best of luck.
Jack Schwager in his own words after I asked him - he interviewed basically almost all money management legends - about his own performance as a trader / investor on Twitter : "Fair question. First, I'm not a Market Wizard. Second, I don't define myself as a trader; rather trading is a hobby that I engage in sometimes--when inspired to do so and when I have time. But, I can say writing the MW books transformed me from a losing to profitable trader."
Hope all readers of this thread will have a great & wonderful 2021. USD vs CAD long was a loser, the GBP USD long setup would have worked out well, now trades @ 1.3650 . For equities, I see a "lost decade" ahead, but of course will only post concrete setups when they occur.
i do not think so the government spending that has gone into COVID will drive all assets prices up ward.
A totally viable scenario, am curious how the world will look like in 2030. Great call you made with the USDCAD shortidea, I was wrong when I thought it'd switch into long mode. Hope you'll post some setups here, too, you're welcome to do so, padutrader. Gold I'm now a bear, think it'll drop to around 1,500 US$ within the next two years.
the thing is i do not trade set ups. the market goes where it is allowed to go.....it will try to go in one direction and if stopped it will go in the other..... i do look for a specific entry point.... that may be called a set up.... such as trend line break.....after which the market will go up or down ....so i take which ever signal comes, sell or buy. but you must understand that the market can and does reverse without warning and so..... must you......so my way of trading is a bit unorthodox