Busy Hurricane Season For 2007

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by eagle488, Dec 8, 2006.

  1. Busy Hurricane Season Forecast for 2007
    Associated Press, Associated Press

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    Dec. 8, 2006 — The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, with three major hurricanes and a good chance at least one of them will make landfall, a top hurricane researcher said Friday.

    Colorado State forecaster William Gray predicted 14 named storms and a total of seven hurricanes next year.

    He and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said there is a 64 percent chance of one of the major hurricanes — with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — coming ashore. The long-term average probability is 52 percent, they said.

    Still, they said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall next year than in the devastating 2005 season, which had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The worst was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

    The 2006 season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists. None hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

    Gray and Klotzbach said last month that a surprise late El Nino contributed to the calmer June-to-November hurricane season this year.

    El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there, Gray said.

    Gray's team said Friday those conditions are likely to dissipate before the next season but Klotzbach cautioned, "this is an early prediction."

    Gray said he believes the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle, despite the calm 2006 season.

    "This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," he said.

    Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of weather, insurance and risk-management experts, on Thursday forecast an active 2007 season, with up to 16 tropical storms including nine hurricanes, four of them intense.
  2. same guy predicted 2006 to be worst ever...
  3. Its not the fact, its the rumor...

    This is off-topic, but this article made me think. The guy in charge of a hurricane center which will warn millions of Americans of impending doom only makes from 102-185k.

  4. Is there any reason to beleive, it wont be the worst season........ever?

    Unprecedented droughts in many parts of the world (at least since people have accurately recording these things go)

    Glaciers falling off at , again, unprecedented rates, and..........what are the readings of recorded seismic activity, v's say, a 100 year average?

    El nino is nothing but the red-haired bastard child of global climatology.
    Doesnt look quite right, doesnt seem to fit in , but everything is blamed on him....its ALL his fault.
  5. Busy Hurricane Season? I don't think so
    Someone long re-insurance stocks? Probably....
  6. Yeah, but your aware of how moving averages work, right:D

    Some poor schmo, paid low 6 figures to come up with stuff that could change peoples lives, change history..........
    CEO's are paid so much because......why again?