That was great! I just laughed the whole time listening to this. Nothing like a little Star Wars to lighten the mood!!
I was overtrading I was just getting a little looser every day until it seemed normal. Took yesterday off went golfing it was perfect outside only 107. 1st Trade Had a good trend established just was looking for a good level to get in. Got in at almost the top couldn't hold the last one but I think I held it for 22 pts and 10 pts the other 2. It went 40 pts but how often does that happen. 22pts is a good hold. I was trying to trade light after my trading on Monday. Result 2nd trade I was getting a little protective of my P/L The goal today was just have an upday nothing huge just chip away at my Monday. Not going to get it all back in a day. Price came quite a ways back. Didn't have a great level for it to bounce off so just went with small size and larger stop. Just felt like it had retraced enough got lucky 2 times in a row sold the top. Results 3rd Trade So I had two trades that I picked the close to the top both times. What are the chances of being that lucky again. Not very good and so instead I tried to sell a break out trade. I was sure we were going to revisit lows. My beliefs can get me in a lot of trouble. If you are going to play a breakout trade you should have a pretty tight stop if it doesn't go. I'll post results didn't have great r/r. Gave back about a 3rd of my day. $100 loss. How many times do I have 3 trades in a Row that work out. Not a lot especially if I don't wait very long to get back in. It's a little shocking how different this trade looks compared to the other two. What is that?
How not to trade! Going to have some great examples here --the one bright side is I stopped before my daily loss limit. That's a win. I also see a trade I used to play and not anymore. When we go through yesterday's low or hi and shoot back false breakout and it runs the whole day. I had a name for it can't remember. I don't even look for it anymore. I do get really fixated on a trend for about 10 minutes too long sometimes. Earlier this year I was beating myself up for a horrible trading day. I just said I'm not doing that anymore I made it my goal that my wife would have no idea if I had an up day or down day. She has no idea it's so great. 1st trade to not do! This broke through yesterdays lows and came back to retest. All the things wrong with this trade that I usually "see" 1. The trade had already moved about 17pt very fast for this market. About 3 min. 2. Very small retracement point wise 4-5 points. 3 Being yesterdays low hi prob that this could be major support for the day. When I was making this trade my concentration was maybe 30%-50%. I wasn't running down all the different parameters that keeps me out of a trade. I was looking to get into a trade. I'm noticing my first trade might not be the best. Results Held a little too long and I added to it at a better level. 2nd trade not to do. I was so patient for this trade watched it go up waited for a pullback to a level I liked. Didn't get into the virgin touch of the level let it consolidate. Got in and it dropped below the level and I love getting in that little move in the opposite direction. Then I got out of half my position before it even went. I just got nervous about it or something. Not sure. Then I got out of half and rode the other half all the way back to break even then bought some more then got out of that. I made a very tiny bit on the trade but a bit of a cluster in my management of it. I didn't feel angry about that trade I've gotten better at just focusing on the next trade. I'm sure there was some residue leftover from the poor trade management. Should of gotten up out of my chair. I love playing what I should of done game. But I can institute that rule for another day. You mess up management of a trade get up take a couple minutes get clear on what the mistake was and be complete about it. Once you are complete and whole you can trade again. Oh shit that might be a while! So here was the result. I got into this next trade about 3 min after that last trade. Really? A good trade is setting up 3 minutes after you just got out of the last trade. I waited over 30 minutes for the set up for that trade but this next one is 3 minutes away. That's a sign I might not be mentally ready. And as you can see I went the different direction too. Screw that trend it's going lower. I'm a genius. I know exactly the moment when I'm going to make a bad trade. I can so feel it. Sometimes I can stop it, sometimes I can't. I laughed a little got out and just stopped for the day. That's a win!!
My wife is reading the following book right now and she had me listen to a part of it where the author did an experiment with people dealing with incomplete information. She used a simple game with buying different stocks or a bond. The jist of it was she discovered that the more people were sure of being right the worse decisions they actually made. They didn't take into consideration the information that they had (which there was enough to pick a winning strategy) and instead went with their gut, intuition or feelings. Wow that sounds like my trading in a nutshell. When I used to play a lot of poker, on a riverboat in Missouri, no less. If you weren't in the hand you usually knew who had the best hand. Sometimes painfully obvious and the loser is betting away. Being in the hand was so much different and never that obvious just like trading. I used to think that it was hindsight that made these trades look obvious that might not be the case. I'm just in the heat of it and can't 'see' it. 1st and only trade. Had drawn the aqua band of S/R in the morning. Thought could have a decent chance of holding this area. Go it on 1st touch and added more the longer in consolidated. Was looking for one last push up to add more but didn't get it. Result. I was in 4 lots and instead of trying to hold the last one for a long time (which I have not been very successful doing) I though why don't I hold the 2nd and 3rd lot a little longer. I got out of the first one with 2 pts and I usually would gotten out at the next one at 5-6 pts but bumped it to 8. The 3rd one I held for 15 pts. The last for 18pts. I didn't see any support below but was just taking profits. Holding on to the middle ones a little longer feels like it works better for my trading psychology than trying to hold the last one for 30-50 pts. How often does that really happen? 20pts in the market seems about right and will adjust to volatility.
It is! I'm listening to it now. If you play poker I highly recommend it. 1st trade. I posted a couple of days ago I was going to look for the trade that breaks through yesterday's lows and bounces back. This exact thing happened today and I was saying to my self this trade isn't probably going to work out. I gave it maybe 20% chance of going back down. So I can't say the mistake is in taking the trade. It was how I managed it. I got into more than I wanted to and I added when I thought it was going to break down. I didn't hold the whole amount to my stop just one. It's not a terrible trade to take just I would not risk very much on it. So if you don't feel that sure of if you might as well pass. Results I didn't hold on to it long as soon as it broke up I was out of 3/4 of the position. 2nd trade. After a losing trade I noticed I get back in to another trade too quick so just knowing that I was a more patient. In the morning session it never retraced much so didn't get in. I usually stop at noon NY time for the day sometimes I'll trade the last hour. I had an area I was looking for a retracement and if it came to that area I would trade it. Came rt into the area held so went long a little more. The area that I got in was also a trend line (pink dash) from the overnight session and just above the Vwap so it had a lot of areas converging. Hi chance to stop there and it did. Could of managed this trade a little better once in did let 2/3 of it come back to even. I'm trying to hold a little longer with the first lot which I did but when I would of usually been out of 2/3 with 10 pts I was only out of 1. So If I'm going to hold the first lot for 10 instead of 4-5 I could always get out of 2 lots at that 10 level. I had the 2nd lot getting out at about 14 pts. I don't need to push back the 2nd one that much. Results
Super hard. The days I go crazy are never good! 1st Trade Pretty weak level to go short. Kept it to a small loser. Result 2nd Trade. Loved this trade. This was the 4th time we were going to try to break yesterdays Hi. Looked strong had a good magnet target of a gap from a couple of weeks ago that was 20 pts away. This trade wasn't a pullback trade which I trade quite frequently this was a momentum play. Results
No Trades today. I just felt off when I got up this morning. Being AZ time the bell is 630Am in the summer. When the bell rang I had been reviewing my charts and I had no conviction on either way at all. Didn't feel like a big down day or a big up day. I don't have any great indicators that has me feel that way but I'll break it down in words. Feelings are a terrible indicator so there was probably more than that. Reaons we aren't going to have a trend day up. 1. We are opening close to yesterdays hi's. 2. Coming off the best quarter in 20 years. 3. Had the top pink dashed line that I drew a few days ago. Are we going to break that today? I don't think so. Why do I think that? 1. We failed once already. 1. Had two big up days this week are we having a 3rd in a row? Ok so why aren't we going to trend down? This one was tougher to think about. 1. Vaccine news that wiped out 250 pts premarket. 2. Slight open up but not crazy up. So this is why I 'felt' like it was going to be a choppy inside day. I usually don't do that great on those days so I'm already at a disadvantage. On top of that and not feeling 100% it was an easy decision to take the day off. Oh if I'm having the feeling to take the day off that right there should be the reason to take the day off. When I play golf and I'm getting ready to hit my cue to back off the ball is if in my mind I say "I should back off the ball something doesn't fell right" If if think I should back off that my cue that I do. That rule took me a long time to put into effect now it's like second nature. My other rule is you only get once to back off the ball if you still don't feel right you just have to go hit it anyway. But in trading, you never have to "hit it". I can take as much time as I want! I wonder if just taking just 10-30 days off a year would make a big difference. My gut says that could take a losing trading system and turn it into a winner. Here's the trades I would have had a high likely hood of taking. Both losers. "Discipline must ultimately always take precedence over conviction." James Kostohryz
What I'm working on today. Not holding some part of the trade too long. This first trade was probably my best management wise. Management of trades is #1 priority. So one simple way to manage the trade is don't hold onto some portion of the trade beyond my stop. Thinking it was one lot no big deal. Ha. No more of that. Did a great job here getting out. I got in the trade lows of yesterday. With a gap down I'm thinking short until told otherwise. Had yesterdays low and some other s/r a few points away. Liked the trade managed it great when it went against me and got out for a small loser. 1st Trade 1st trade results 2nd trade The other thing I'm working on is I get out of part of the trade too early if I'm in 4 lots hold that first one for 3-4 pts. Sometimes I get out at 2pt or even scratch. YOu can not take small winners. If you are going to have a 2-4 stop taking 2 pt winners is not a good idea! Liked this trade coming back about 4-5 points from the hi to retest into the breakout area. Only got into 2 lots was thinking it might retrace a little more. 3rd Trade This was a good example how I'll get in a zone. I was in a total of 5 lots and it took off as soon as I got in. When things shoot up really fast I have a habit of taking some off. MISTAKE- Got out of the first two lots way to fast. One trending days I look for two pushes up before lunch. This was a perfect example of that. Also had a great magnet to fill the gap. Just didn't hold the majority of the trade long enough. I'm holding the last lot that's it. Work on that! 2nd and 3rd trade result. 4th Trade This trade seemed so obvious that was the only thing I didn't like about it. We had been trending down all day with small bounces. I think 8 pts was the biggest one. I can't see this rallying into the close so going to look for a trade for the last hour. We bounced off the lows of the day and was just going to sell when it bounced about 5 pts. Sold on a couple of bounce got great entry prices. Lets look at my exit. I'll avg my cost so I'm in at 3151.25. When i'm getting in multiple lots I'll use that avg to figure my outs. So I took one trades off for about 2.25, 4pts, 4.25 and 16 pts. That's a great way to look at it too. I'm taking way too much off early. This setup especially I thought it could go 20. It went 19 from my first entry. Yes there are going to be the trades when it only goes 8 and I get out of two and scratch on the others. But when I have a trade I feel strongly about going 20 pts. You have to hold the position longer. Not a ton. Just fight off that urge to take the first one off for a 2 pt winner. That sets up the rest of the trade nicely. Its a BIG difference if I go 4-6-8-16 that's 34 pts compared to 26 pts. And I'm way better off if the trade only goes 8pts. This is the easiest way for me to improve my trading. It's the 4-6-8 rule! I can move that around to adjust for vol. Results