Opening pipelines, renewing oil/gas leases and other actions could do a lot to help domestic energy and lower prices. In fact, just doing those things would encourage speculators/hedgers to sell/short energy in anticipation before more energy is actually produced (just like they went long right after Biden closed Keystone). But that seems very unlikely right now.
I believe S&P, Indexes, have just started falling, 2008 will look like child's play. My long term commodities system short many sectors as inflation has forced pricing to go way beyond the norms. Am short the dollar and crypto too, long most other major currencies. I seeking S&P below 1800 before I reverse.
Can it fall to 1800, sure it can. most people here are traders, or want to be traders, all we need to do profit from markets moves. Levels mean shit for us.
I think the difference between now and 2008 / 2000 is that you could get a decent yield on treasuries back then. Also, and related, inflation was much lower back then. Now the Fed's only tool to fight inflation will kill the economy. I think a lot of people jumped into equities after realizing that it was the only game in town that provided any kind of return. I suspect that a lot of people have too much exposure in equities and should not be in equities based on their risk tolerance / investment horizon. I also don't see the main inflation drivers: food, energy, and housing becoming cheaper anytime soon. Hopefully inflation has peaked, but I suspect it will stay high for a while. Yeh, I think it will be a hard landing. Very hard indeed. Fortunately, I think everyone can see at this point that it's not mostly due to some stupid "Putin price hike", but instead horrible, reckless government spending and policy combined with a faciliatory Fed printing money.
Yep. I'm waiting for one of these "gurus" who predict the market reaching certain levels or percentage loss/gains to put their money where their mouth is. Like if they're wrong, retire, donate $500,000 to some charity, etc. Anyone can make outlandish predictions and if they make enough, eventually they'll be "right" like a broke clock is twice a day. When I first started following the markets, everyone claimed they "called the 1987 crash" because they made some vague, bearish prediction within a year or two of the crash. Most of them went on to "call" about 25 of the next 2 bear markets over the next couple of decades.
The rates can only go to high for a short time as the national debt is huge, with very high rates they cannot service the debt, the amount of debt service can be as much as the military budget. So at say 6-8 percent it is not dumb to lock into some long bonds.