Glad you're with me CB. By the way, I'll save the originator of this thread some pointless time/money if you intend to trade Bund intra-day: 1) An MA will do nothing for you excpet potentially give you an idea on where a typical large fund may be positioned. To use it (crossovers or touching) is pure stupidity. Leave it in the texbook where you read it. 2) Stochastics are useless for you in any market on any timeframe. 3) If you want to trade fixed interest markets, learn t use Market Profile as well as candles
I too agree with your comments on the bund. I thought using a gentle push away from the bund into something similar might be a good way to get a newbie who is already pricing new cars to trade something better to start with. Deal fever is a hard thing to argue with.
put your two lot market stops in the bund 4 seconds before non farms 3 ticks each side of what's left of a market - you have no position beforehand this will stop you in. You'll have a relatively defined loss and a big upside if it's out of line. Goldman always seem to have the figure so it tends to go 2 seconds before official release time. I know people who do this on 150 lots and winners/cods ratio is extremely favourable, you'll never get on it otherwise but you need fasten your seatbelt this is not a technique for the faint hearted!
Relatively being the operative word. Eurex's native stops are stop markets, not stop limits, so on NFP you do get a teensy weensy bit of slippage. Doublechin, do you have any stats on your approach?
probably 7/10 if you are choosy about where/if you put your stops and when, considering what orders are left in the market and so on. Often you'll get a false start with domino stops being triggered in the wrong direction before anyone knows. I've been in one payroll stopped in long 18 tick winner got out number came out higher and got stopped in the short dumping half point the other way - sweeet, but then it's not always so rosy. Works on cme currency futures as well, trade balance is a beaut. As for person asking if it's pro rata on eurex, no first come basis but the flippers just adjust their spoof by a one lot and it sends them to the back putting you in the firing line. Then they flip it on the first sign of their order being filled knowing they're the last bid/offer at a price
Can someone explain what spoofing/ flipping is? If you are not watching the market depth, will you even see it?
well thanx to all ! luv the answers.. ! for the ema or ma .. not a crossing, just said do you use it ? it can be helpfull for the trend... i dont know! ok, i will look for the shatz ! i need a mentor :eek:
Doublechin, I got myself a dummy account and tried out a couple of tactics which were a bit more complex than the one you talk about for NFP. Although it may work if NFP comes out of line (and the move is in the same direction as the jump that happens before the figure is released) it makes sense but it is a ridicuoous idea to give it a go unless oyu have a lot of money in your pocket already. Firstly, there is usually a fluctuation both sides of value before the release which can cause tyou to be in two counteractive positions which totally voids the whole point of the exercise. Secondly, the initial move before the figure IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT always in the same direction as the sentiment that the figure causes. Thirdly, if you put your stops close to where the market is trading before the number then you are literally guaranteed a long + short position but if you put them further out then you are basically guessing at where the next price traded will be. Lastly, and most importantly- if the number comes out broadly in line, the likelihood is you will get absolutely shat on. I'm still working on the simulator with my way of doing it, which I think may eventually be useful more times than it is not but it simply isn't as easy as placing stops to go off- not getting triggered by noise is the key here. I'll tell you how dangerous this is- in April's NFP I tested this on a sim with a 10 lot and ended up with a long and short position....... and still lost EUR 7k!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The message is simple- don't try it unless you can afford to lose big.