How's it going? You been at for over a week. Are you getting the "right" thought/analysis process going. How do you know if it's right? What are you comparing it to? Has the time spent been worth it? If you had to give yourself a mid term grade what would it be?
NoD, Nice trade on NFLX, from the fundamental view it looks way overbought, but thats not a daytraders concern I am trying to capture moves like this too. I strive to enter somewhere around the point were NFLX reversed at around 10:05 EST and to place a stop right above the double tops. That way my risk is also minimized. I don't understand your sim example 100%. Lets say you want to ride a breakout to the upside, in there is no high of the day yet (the breakout is that high) you would just buy and trend with the breakout and place a sell stop initially at support level from which the breakout began the "liftoff". Correct? duhmentor, I feel a little ashamed claiming something after only a week of going at it, but from the perspective of the initial goals that I have set I would say this has been a great success so far. If I use my p/l as a judge I would say I am failing, but the value of the screen time is immense. I have found many mistakes (I am sure more to come), I have discovered many wrongs in my perception of the daily chart movement, but I can with certainty say that today I know much more then I knew a week a go. I make less mistakes now and I have a better understanding of the thoughts and emotions that do not belong in this process. I have a long way to go, but so far I am loving this business and I feel that I have the right tools and ideas and its just a matter of learning to apply them properly.
The fact that you have set goals bodes well for your future in this business. Also because you are satisfied with your progress I assume that the goals were specific and measurable. You are taking the right track in being more concerned with learning than you are with P & L. In trading learning to lose is a good thing. The process will take a while. You seem to know where you are going and Iâm confident youâll get there.
Day 6 (please see the chart attached): Today was an interesting lesson on long term major resistances. If you look at the chart it looks like one long trend, just get in and let your money grow (not for me !). I have noticed this trend around 10:15am EST, but that time it has been well on its way and I though I missed the move. When checking for the macro picture before deciding if I should get on board of this trend, I noticed that this stock was approaching a 1 week and a 3 month resistance lines. When the stock reached the first resistance line it looked like it lost steam and I got in short, but it consolidated for a while and moved on to the 3 month resistance, consolidated there for a while and moved on again without any major volume spikes (the two resistance lines actually formed a channel that can be seen on the chart). It looks like my lesson is this: it does not matter if its a 3 month resistance or a two year resistance, wait for the confirmed move from the resistance line.
Thanks, I thought NFLX initial run up off the open was a short squeeze/momentum play. It opened gap up yesterday, and gained almost 5 more pts to hit a new 52-week high. It already had a large short interest and likely had a lot of new counter-trend traders shorting it into yesterday's close. Because of the size of the opening move today, I looke for a counter-trend confirmation setup, so the minute price DIDN'T break out above the high, I jumped on a short position @ 83.07 (10:03am), risking only about $40. Breakouts with liftoff generally come after a period of low volume consolidation after an initial strong move. A great example I noticed yesterday was AIG. It opened gap up, but sold off the close and settled into a narrow range consolidation on very low volume, never moving more than a few ticks below Thursday's close. AIG is a reliable breakout stock, so you'd have your buy stop @ 34.53 or few ticks higher, to catch a break through the day's high of 34.52. Look the 12:05pm bar yesterday when that breakout price was hit. THAT'S liftoff! Some other nice breakout stocks I've noticed are AAPL, AMZN, and UAUA.
good to hear. I found this helps avoiding buying/selling into a larger time frame wall. (*your "ETR" trade was a perfect example of this today. I would have done the same EXACT thing as you did, especially since it was approaching major resistance around lunch hours.. perfect for a reversal.. however, we all know even perfect setups dont work all the time... no biggie, take a small loss and move on. ) I agree (at least I think I do if I understand what you are saying) that reading intrday bars is like reading tea leaves.. Thats kinda why I liked combining P & V into 1.. but to each his own. head and shoulders. bottom ov "V" formed by 2 tops.. you want a breathrough of this.. then a light/weak rally back into the neckline (which is now resistance), and then a continuation down..... you play the h&s the same way. here is a double bottom.: (I would have drawn a horizontal line .. but look at the retracement, and subsequent rally... (enter on the weak retracement) (NOTE: you also have a double bottom within a double bottom if you notice (july 10th 10:00)....... also showing same behavior.. ) I struggle with the first one. I admit.. But I learned to look at it this way.. it is much safer to ALWAYS wait for a retest of a s/r line and enter in for a small loss, or great entry point as it is to chase... however you will obvioulsy MISS HUGE trades that simply never test.. that is part of it.. you have to choose which method you like... -No Doji's recomendation was also a favorite of Anekdoten (at least for a large portion of his journal) who learned it from Suri Dudella. (there is that name again, Funny how that happens.)
this was/is still is one of my biggest psychological hangups.. I tried to learn/apply all diff strategies so I could adapt to any market, in any condition at any time.. (not really, but I wasnt giving any particualr strategy enough time to figure out, and just hopping around losing money for awhile.. For many of us, sitting on our hands doing nothing is the most painful.. espeically when the market is moving and you feel like you are missing everything, only to desparately get in late.. Some of this is the pressure (as you said) to earn money, which ironically, will make you lose the most if you act on it. that is why part time trading (with other source of income) psychologically is easier.. You can sit on the sidelines simply b/c you can let the setups you LIKE come to you, not force trades. keep this in mind. its huge.
How would you feel entering when the second bottom was forming and putting a sell stop a few ticks under the first bottom (around 127.75)? This way you get a significantly better risk reward ratio. If you wait for confirmation in this type of situations you get small reward and small risk, if you enter when a second bottom started forming you get a large reward and small risk, this seems to abide to the "keep you losers small, and winners large" mantra.
that could be an option. I honestly never thought about it that way. I personally wouldnt do it b/c it has yet to really be setting up for any pattern. I would only really want to short if it had already broken past that first bottom. then I would wait for it to try to trade back UP, and short any hesistation around the first bottom. So I guess the only difference is you are trading the first potential down leg, I am trading the reaction (or possibly missing) to the move. Also, on a side note. I dont want to inadvertantly threadjack your thread with other info. I just saw when you stated you were focusing on PA, I could add what I learned, etc. Let me know, if I (by mistake) am taking this thread away from its intention.
No, please don't worry. I welcome any trade related discussions and comments. While I am interested in learning price action, price action has to be interpreted in context (of the bigger picture, market, stock, trend, etc...) and that means that a greater level of awareness is required on my part. Feel free to continue to share you experiences and suggestion, I appreciate your input.