I was right 82.6% last year with earnings. There is part of it that is a small gamble but I do A LOT of research before engaging in a position. I will be the first to admit, I have had some positions that don't turn out to be in my favor but for the most part, I am right. It takes a lot of time to really understand earnings.
this market is too volatile right now to call a bottom after only a couple days of cheer. And cheer from what, that lehman proved it could raise 4 billion before it has to write down another 10. I am sure I will be reading "the bear is back" posts after some actual fundamental data comes out this week....the jobs report is coming and the bulls better be running.
In reality, a lot of things happened. FEDs talk about NATIONLIZING BANKS", 1 Trillion agreed upon on the Financial losses world wide, in the Financial Sector. Congress is "BEATING" its chest at the OIL firms, to make it seem like they give a rats ass about Gas Prices. Nice move, all thought the Socialist in Congress are just playing a weak card. The fog is clearing and even though it looks like shit, the market is not so 'worried'. I could see a short term run happen, back up to the 13600 or so in the INDU. Elections on their way, this summer might be bullish.
IMHO, we are in for a bear market rally, up til about June. Time and price confirm same. I also don't believe the "democratically elected government" is going to allow the market to tank further at this juncture.
Instead of a credible answer we get another joker in the works Handle pulling on $1 slot machine pays better. They supply you free beer ! Wear your cowboy boots, tight jeans and a gold chain get drunk and dump $1,000 on an evening at least you will look like hero.
Its YOU who is worried and feels insecure. What happened your recession did not come? How come? Did you read tales from the graveyard courtesy Nouriel Roubini? You have no faith in our system perfected for 100 years and what our government has done. They did everything they can and hence its starting to show. When people get 2-2.5 % at the bank and money market account what are they going to do? Dump it into stocks and real estate and that fuels bull markets. There is lots of cash on the sidelines coming in every day. When we hit 1400 it will snowball from there.
That will be a great time to exit stocks and go back to making money wheeling and dealing in real estate. I love real estate, nice spreads and luxurious villas, swimming pools and views to wake up to.
You might be right...we may go to 1400 and above.. but your iron condor strategies suck when the mkt moves 400 pts... but how will you ever know when to get short again?
Do not get overconfident. Yes, the pundits where all out in the financial news today speaking something of the like, and it is quite amazing how the institutional banks and the FED have kept this market from tanking to 10,000 on the DOW; however, do not be fooled by your enthusiasm. The institutional banks have created this "voltility" on purpose, there is a heck of alot of money to be made in such environments, but a large proportion of the losses in subprime and other types of SIV/CDO's has yet to be disclosed and is being hid on the books. I do love bear rallies, indeed I do, but we are in way-to-high inflation and YES we are in a recession. On the good note, I predicted(to myself) that our "Economists" would get very good at avoiding long term recessions and that seems possible. But of you think we are not headed for another nosedive, then you are fooling yourself! Es Master