The Long Argument----See the last line Greenspan's comment re: FED manipulated stock rally and future predicted prices. http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/03/greenspan-recent-yield-surge-canary-in.html
Also: http://hosted2.ap.org/txdam/9fffc92...Analysis/id-pdd8dee9ac82d48bf92717e1eb42eb9c9 In the Fall the Dems will be fighting for control of congress and the Big "O" will push ahead hence my call for weakness Mid April to the end of the 2nd quarter then ramp it up again through elections, next thing you know its 2011 and the "Good time of year" for stocks then kerplunk March/April 2011 as the market falls on the weight of debt, taxes, and "jobless growth." Throw in a pinch of inflation and a rising interest rate environment---well you know the rest. That's why cycles work---the stimuli take a while to percolate and the effects are delayed but the result is usually the same. The "Business cycle."
the people are delusional. if one has been long this market for any period of time since march 2009 they have pocketed a decent %return. do you risk your gains to get more gains or do you step aside after the recent run-up? we know that the markets oscillate and there is gonna be a pull-back. if one looks at bonds, they are around the cheapest levels in 1.5 years. just park your money there if you are long stocks now and re-enter once the market corrects a bit.
More upside in the futures tonight, tomorrow is mutual fund Monday so it may just lead to more upside. Also keep in mind that job numbers are due out on Friday, I think the markets are going to price these figures in and probably rise due to the fact the markets are closed on Friday. *S&P FUT __1165.59__ +2.10 __+0.18% *DOW FUT __10812.00__ +14.00 __+0.13% *NAS FUT __1956.00__ +4.25 __+0.22%
any arguments why this gap may not get filled any time soon? *correction: march top should be with a "?"
Yeah Japan's down 0.8% and US opens higher?!? All bets are off as the market climbs with help from the invisible buyer.
A Quiz: let's say you are managing a fund and you are happy to match or slightly beat SPX performance for the year (which is better than 50% of your peers). you went long SPY on the first trading day of the year. even though you were dumb enough to sit through Feb correction, by March 26 you are +4.62%. If you keep this rate of return by the end of the year you will be >+18% - a great return! consider that SPX has returned ~10% or less over how many previous years on average. Look how bonds bounced many times from the level they are at now. One is likely to make a couple of % or more. Given a good chance that the market is overextended right now, why not move your money into bonds and re-enter SPY after the correction is over?
not sure what that all means but somebody must have gotten hurt: Capitulation: Biggest Weekly Spike In S&P Large Contracts On The CFTC In History - $19 Billion In Index Shorts Covered Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2010 21:34 -0500 This is what capitulation looks like: The chart above is an indication of the net speculative contracts on the CFTC as disclosed by the weekly COT report. In particular, this tracks the S&P Large contracts (x 250). Last week saw the single biggest weekly short cover in the history of this data set, indicating one of several things: 1) some large fund(s) capitulated and covered a major short position, 2) the ongoing forced short buy-ins by the State Streets of the world have finally yielded results, 3) someone is positioning for a massive move higher in the market by going net short to neutral. The net weekly change in contracts of 66,043 is a record, and involves a staggering amount of capital: the money involved is 1,150x250x66,000 or roughly $19 billion. A weekly move of this magnitude was only ever seen once before, on March 24, 2009, when the government had to cement the bottom of the market following the 666 low. As the Large uses Open Outcry, it explains why we were getting numerous emails from pit traders indicating that Goldman was buying up billions worth of S&P Large. .... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ca...-cftc-history-19-billion-index-shorts-covered
Bloomberg S&P 500 Posts Best Streak Without 1% Slump: Technical Analysis March 26, 2010, 12:58 AM EDT More From Businessweek By Lynn Thomasson March 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poorâs 500 Index hasnât had a daily drop of at least 1 percent in a month, the longest stretch during the yearlong bull market and a sign U.S. stocks are gaining momentum. The benchmark index for U.S. shares has risen 6.5 percent since its last 1 percent decline. The streak since Feb. 23 has exceeded the span in July and August that had been the longest, according to data compiled by Harrison, New York-based research firm Bespoke Investment Group LLC. âYouâre seeing strength in the stock market, and that signals the recovery is alive and well,â said Stefanie Yeager, a fund manager at State College, Pennsylvania-based Vantage Investment Advisors LLC, which oversees $450 million. âWeâre going to have blips, but the recovery is under way.â Equities advanced after President Barack Obamaâs health- care overhaul lifted shares of drugmakers and hospitals and reports showed rising demand for steel and semiconductors. Investors from Laszlo Birinyi to Barton Biggs, who said in March 2009 that stocks would rise before the S&P 500 surged 72 percent, say gains will continue. While the streak is evidence of the rallyâs long-term sustainability, equities may retreat for a few days before moving higher, Bespoke said in a report yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent in the past two days, the most in a month.
The melt up will continue, Dow 11,000 this week might be certain. Seems this shows all bears and shorts have gone long.