Up ~7% today, good start. With indexes retracing oil stands more of a chance getting to $70 & perhaps $90
there's no reason for prices to drop. The world is still dependant on oil, with OPEC (more than likely) cutting the supply to drive prices we're going to see a good rise again. The world runs on the commodity, and with reserves of easiest acccess being used up readily i'm thinking we're in for huge gains in the next year or so. The oil sands in AB Canada (where I live) have a break even point at $55 a barrel, they wouldn't produce running at a loss and the US gets a fair chunk of their oil from us. I'm thinking the fundamentals of every economy is based on energy and oil. Therefore it seems severely undervalued. The world needs it to run, demand never really gets cut back (or severely enough to maintain the current price drop). All IMO though, do what you want with that. I'd buy some futures for next year. Especially with the summer spike in prices etc. something that expired around september would be a good buy. (im confident it wouldn't be under $70/barrel).
Don't be so conservative! Is there news out or is it just getting jerked around in a thin market? Four bucks in an hour is a pretty good swing.
Yeah why did it go up so much? I noticed it went up RIGHT after closing of ES, NQ and YM. Do you think it was people heding indexes going up on monday by long oil (the two have been pretty well correlated overall...)