I believe that crude oil is due for a rebound rally to at least $55 per barrel from its close of 51.21 on 1/16/07. I believe this rally will occur within the next 8 weeks. The perfect storm of extreme negative sentiment and depressed valuation is in place and ready to uncoil. Correspondingly, I have entered a long position in USO at 43.93 on 1/17/07. Entry: 43.93 Stoploss: 39.53 Time Stop: 8 weeks (maximum holding period) Exit: Pending system signal
I really cannot believe the selloff in oil, funny thing is as it drops about .85 to 1.50 a day, the gas prices near me havent moved more than 5 cents. Also did you see cnbc this morning interviewing T. Boone Pickens. He said 70 before 50, and right now looks like he is WRONG.
i think oil will stabalize between 50 and 60 for 2007. the downward momentum has ceased temporarily. I bought OIH at 128 today. any cold snap on the east coast should decrease supplies for the next few months and i would look for a 10%-15% tempoary pop to the upside if that occurs. with weather this seasonably warm...there is a decent chance or retuning to normality. If oil had droppd to this price and the seasonal temperatures were more normal...i probably would not have taken the position.
Went long USO @ 43.72 Tues. also. Thinking we may have had selling climax Friday. Read recent report COT short interest(commitments) at record high. Using 15% stop myself. Excellent article I can give directions to if anyone interested. GLTA...
To those trading USO... Is there a reason why you prefer it in comparison to OIH or XLE besides USO being cheaper of the three??? Mark
Look at the 10 day weather forecast for the Northeast U.S. Don't be so sure the lows have been made. If we have a warm February, NO WAY do we hold $50 in Crude. Tomorrow's EIA inventory report should be interesting. I have been trading it long cautiously. good luck! el surdo