Monthly charts. Bull = higher highs and higher lows. Bear = lower highs and lower lows. For example, TQQQ Highs were 8/31/19 and 3/31/20. Lows were 12/31/19 and 3/31/20. Of course 3/31/20 has not happened yet, but it's looking strongly that way. You could use, SPY, IWM, or the Dow, too.
SPY just took out 13 months worth of lows in 1 month. I don't even think SPY and QQQ are great examples due to cap weighting. Some of the secondary indicies are far worse (taking out 2016 lows) and trading into or beneath 2007/08 highs. Too much lag in your definition since you would give back 30-35% before triggering reversals.
I think you have to look at the value of the stocks at this point and not the chart anymore. Are these companies out there a good buy. Like GS for example. The price of GS 10 years ago was $170 per share. It's $140 today after dropping from $240 in 1 month. There are a lot of stocks out there trading at less than they were 10 years ago. XOM was $66 10 years ago. Now it's $33. Literally half the price it was during it's lowest point after the finanical crisis. These are bargains. Warren Buffet is probably blowing his load all over these opportunities right now knowing he'll be a trillionaire before he dies.
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Possibility: Just as the gubmint and the media created the Coronasteria fear porn scare (possibly in advisement with Big Money Creation Complex), they will pronounce 'problem solved'. We've contained it! People believed the fear-hype and they will believe the problem contained hype. And it will be - because it never existed. I'ts a Normal Flu used for political gain.
The markets have felt a few mosquito bites from a few big mosquitoes and think that the end is near, however there is a swarm of them on the horizon and the worst is yet to come. Tens of millions are now unemployed in the United States (or furloughed, whatever, they are still unemployed) and will most likely be for months. Look at how many restaurants, bars, etc are closed. Think through the ripple effect. Food suppliers will shutter their doors soon, but before then, many employees will lose their jobs. Farmers will be sitting on food they can't sell. Look at airlines alone, and travel in general and really think through the ripple effect. Cities and States rely on the taxes from flights. Less fuel is needed, think about how many jobs will be lost there. Then think about the hotels and the loss of taxes and the residual income per occupant. There are many jobs lost. Think about the businesses that support hotels. Linen suppliers, launders, food suppliers, etc. The ripple effect is massive. Think about the loss of car sales. I just drove down a major car dealership street in Portland, Oregon (where I live) and every single car dealership was bursting at the seams, and a couple dealerships were receiving even more cars. There is quite a support crew behind the scenes at car dealerships (I used to be a car salesman) and you add up all the dealerships around the country and that is a lot of jobs that will be lost. Movie theaters to a large degree will become a thing of the past. Sure there will be small ones around but overall I don't think that industry will be able to spring back and they certainly shouldn't receive a single penny in bailouts. There are plenty of industries you can think through the ripple effect and it will just boggle your mind. But then you have to think about all of the bankruptcies, which means loans not being paid off. Will California go bankrupt? It certainly is going to struggle to pay out their unfunded public employee pensions, especially with the already massive drop in stock prices, but then California isn't going to be collecting much income from the investment taxes to it's citizens. What about Chicago? New York? etc? No sir, the pain is just getting started and the thing is, central banks around the world don't have much ammunition left. This is going to be a doozy and there will be tons of opportunities to make huge profits in the near future. But we're not there yet no matter what the squawk boxes say on the financial channels.
How much of the above do we think is from man made panic? Eventually if this isn’t contained we will need to accept our new reality, it’s a flu period. The destruction to the global economy will far outweigh this virus’s fatality rate. People will eventually have to come back out no matter what world o meter says.
A fairly large portion is man made panic, but it doesn't matter? At the end of the day, the global financial damage will be unfathomable. I'm mostly a technical trader and people say many technical tools are self-fulfilling prophesy, but at the end of the day, does it matter if they work? People will have to come back out, but the real question is, what will they be coming out to, especially when there will be a severe lack of jobs for some time? I'm an intra-day trader so I don't care too much what will even happen tomorrow in the markets. However, I am also very much looking forward to incredible investment opportunities, as should we all.
I am also only an intra-day trader and agree with most of what you said. I also understand and appreciate it does no good to overly worry about a "doomsday" or "end of world" scenario, none the less the amount of people that are saying things like they are looking forward to buying stocks low is extremely concerning. I don't recall this type of optimism in the past. Clearly this is purely anecdotal evidence and I hope that it's nothing and just me noticing a trend where there isn't one, none the less it does concern me.