GS Jan 220 straddle at 49% vol is an example of the necessity to implement bet-size variation. 38% vols after report on GS spot trading 207-217.
Only way it works is if you have super deeep pockets and you start small and never get to a maximum value. In other words if Bill Gates did a martingale investment system starting with $1,000 it would eventually workfor him cause he can remain solvent at those levels a lot longer than the market can remain irrational
What you said applies perfectly to blind doubling. But you have the trend to look at. If you never goes heavy against it, volatility will be your friend too. Buy low, sell high, buy lower, sell higher... Bill gates would put the whole market in his pocket...:eek:
lol ''you have the trend to look at'' since trends tends to reverse all the time, especially intraday, what the hell do you do when your magical fluffy trend changes direction? 1% on your 3000$ account, WOW, your ''always in the market'' ''i follow the trend and double down when its going against me''made 30$, thats means millions of mcdonalds employees wordwide are making more money than you. its a recipe for disaster in my opinion.
No magic at all. But martingale profits nicely in choppy markets. I have seen that live. Their enemy is a strong trend. If you don't go against the big trends you are safe.
yes ive seen people making tons of cash by doubling down as well, then lose it all on a day where it dropped 30 pts because the market ''has to go up now we went down enough'' and guess what it dropped more. unless you see in the future, you have NO WAY of knowing when a trend will start, stop, or reverse. and nobody needs any martingaling to profit in choppy markets. you seem confident now, wait till you blow 70% of your account because of this, then it'll take you MONTHS to recover that loss using sound trading strategies, because with martingale, you can only get 1-2 of those fat losers and you're out. what about this : You trade normally, you don't double down, you take your losers like a man with balls, and you make damn sure your average winner makes more than your average loser. so if the markets decide to move 30 pts against you, you have one small loss. bonus : you wont feel like you're trading with a gun pointed at your head.
I will not go bigger than a McDonald's employee unless that 1% survives the test of time. Statistics on live results in the only thing that matters. The size of the account is not important. If your account is 100 time bigger your lots may be 100 times bigger. That's all.
what i mean was you are willing to take all that risk, face all that emotional roller coaster, for 1%? that is just insane. an account 100 times bigger will suffer losses 100 times bigger in dollars too if you trade 100x the size. look I'm serious, don't do it.