Bullet-proof martingale!?!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Xtrader59, Dec 14, 2007.

  1. rosy2

    rosy2

    .05 * num_in_row = prob of losing n in a row
     
    #51     Dec 15, 2007
  2. What I most like in forex is the absolute control of the risk. It ranges from zero (demo accounts) to "infinite" (you may blow up your entire account in minutes). Besides, no matter if you trade USD 0,01 or 1M. The cost is the same. You are not fooled into trading big under transaction costs pressure.
     
    #52     Dec 15, 2007
  3. So if theres a 5 percent chance of losing and I do it 750 times in a row the chance of it losing 5 times in a row is 18.75?
     
    #53     Dec 15, 2007
  4. 0.05 x 0.05 of losing twice
    0.05 x 0.05 x 0.05 of losing three times
    etc.

    But you have to take into account how much you win and how much you lose each time.
     
    #54     Dec 15, 2007
  5. .05 * num_in_row = prob of losing n in a row

    =0.05 * 5 *750= 18.75
     
    #55     Dec 15, 2007
  6. Ok thats much better than id worked out. Its clearer now... Thanks for that I understand how to work it out
     
    #56     Dec 15, 2007
  7. Wow thats much better...
     
    #57     Dec 15, 2007
  8. As i see it 0.05 * 0.05 *0.05 *0.05 *0.05 * 0.05 * 750 = the probabilty f it happening 5 times in a row in 750 separate events.... please correct me if im wrong here.
     
    #58     Dec 15, 2007
  9. Hey, this is not correct. If it were 7500 times, according to this formula the probability would be 187,50%. Nonsense. It is not so simple.
     
    #59     Dec 15, 2007
  10. Im getting 0.000234375 percent chance of it occuring in 750 separate events.
     
    #60     Dec 15, 2007