Bullet-proof martingale!?!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Xtrader59, Dec 14, 2007.

  1. I totally agree. Do you keep a track record of your trades?
     
    #11     Dec 14, 2007
  2. Do tell.

     
    #12     Dec 14, 2007
  3. You can't blindly follow a rule like this. What if you come across that "exceptional" setup, based on your past experiences. What I do isn't necessarily a Martingale but rather, a bigger line on a trade that has a higher probability than one with a lower probability. In order to truly be able to distinguish between these two events you have to have a lot of experience because all markets are unique and each day has its own unique characteristics. You have to take the time to develop that 6th sense.

    There are times to trade consistent sizes, times to Martingale, and times to average. There is simply no substitute for experience.

     
    #13     Dec 14, 2007
  4. Point proven. You mention timing and trends. Reference what I said about your "edge". If your indicators or edge are that good, a martingale system isn't necessary due to the fact that you will just take the trade with full size at the appropriate time.

    All that you've indicated is that you need more time and energy devoted to your edge. Believe me the only thing that you've proven here is that you're taking probably too many trades that are too large.

    Hell, I'd say you're probably better off working on discipline and going larger on each trade and take less of them. Simply the amount of times a trader exposes his capital to the markets is ratcheting up one's risk (many new traders miss this total concept).

    Much better to take your time and only take the best trades.

    Good Luck!
     
    #14     Dec 14, 2007
  5. No risk - sort of like subprime loans and the Quants who said it was a once in a 50 year event

    They work until they implode for the unseen blindsided reason.
     
    #15     Dec 14, 2007
  6. I keep monitoring the trend all the time and never pyramide against it. If you keep the "grid step" large you will probably never go beyond the third level. Begining from 0,01 lots you will not go larger than 0,07 (0,01 + 0,02 + 0,07). Small risk.
     
    #16     Dec 14, 2007
  7. I keep very detailed records and examine my trades very closely. I actually use three methods. Same size, martingale, and average. It would take me a while to describe when I use which one but suffice it to say, I'm looking for distances between support and resistance levels. If I take a long and it goes against me but the next support level is 1 point away I will average into the trade. If the next support level is 10 points away I will stop out and <i>consider</i> a DD on the next trade but that depends largely on the type of setup I get on that subsequent trade. It must be a higher prob. trade for me to do a DD. If not then I just go same size.

     
    #17     Dec 14, 2007
  8. Agreed. I advocate a very well thought entry in every level. If you enter blindly market will sooner or later wipe you out.
     
    #18     Dec 14, 2007
  9. Ahhh....now this is where we disagree. The longer a trend persists the lower the probability it will continue. I fade moves so if I sell a move up and I get taken out I'm looking for something more parabolic. If I get it I'm hitting it harder. If it's the same lazy drift then same size.

    It's important to note, you are trading Forex, I'm trading fut's -- totally different beasts so we're kinda comparing apples to oranges.


     
    #19     Dec 14, 2007
  10. Ahh...Martin himself!

    In a nutshell....imo...a double bottom with lower lows has a higher prob than a single V-bottom. I'll take a V small and a double bigger but there is a lot of judgment involved.

     
    #20     Dec 14, 2007