Bullet-proof martingale!?!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Xtrader59, Dec 14, 2007.

  1. Thank you for your serious advise. But I am trying to prove statistically in a small account that a certain trade plan may consistently win in the long run. If I get it small, I will scale up gradually. You can get used to numbers of any size. I remember when I used to get sick before placing a 0,01 lot trade in a mini account. It was not long ago...:D
     
    #91     Dec 17, 2007
  2. I forgot to mention: 1% a week is not that bad. I think it compounds a very reasonable return. I have another account managed by a professional that till now is very far below this.
     
    #92     Dec 17, 2007

  3. The smallest lot I can place in my forex account (1 mini) is for 10,000 currency units. What do you mean by 0,01?
    are you referring to a 1,000 currency unit?
     
    #93     Dec 19, 2007
  4. I don't know if other brokers use the same lot sizes but at IBFX one lot in a mini account is $10.000,00. 0,01 lot means a $100,00 contract. On EURUSD, this would win/lose $0,01 (one cent) for each pip up/down.

    In the MT4 platform, you hit F9 and choose 0,01 lot.
     
    #94     Dec 19, 2007
  5. Leth

    Leth

    #95     Dec 23, 2007
  6. We Autotrade (ES, ER2, NQ, YM) intraday and intrabar using a six step hedged martigale system. The Math is complex because there are 6 hedged Tradebots following six steps opening, adding to hedging and exiting trades.

    You really need to be a Excel Guru because this game is fast and complex and execution is paramount. Because of the exponentionial add's to a losing position your are always a few ticks from an exit. Your profits tend to equal your draw down.

    Without syncronized hedged positions you end up playing a game of guts and will eventually blow up.

    The System we trade is relatively simple on the surface but as it progresses it can grow out of control if you are not precise.

    #1. Trade Fermenting: You need time for the market to swing but too often you end up pulling the trigger on the add to early and exit too soon. We find afterhours works better than the intraday roller coaster plus you get the benefit of the full day to go flat versus the 3pm panic ;)

    #2. Doubling your position does not work. All it does is average down your cost to 1/2 and you still need more than 1/2 swing to exit and profit out.

    ie. 1 - 1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 - 32 (just halving cost with no significant average down effect)

    Try: 1 - 2 - 6 - 12 - 36 - 108 - 243 (Squaring your position pulls cost down to a few ticks of break even)

    #3. Add and Exit increments:
    We do not use stops.... Every step we add to a losing trade position we open a hedged position the otherway. Depending on your broker it should cost a net margin of zero to hedge your position. The hedge positions generate profits during the drawdowns. (Careful - Do your math!)

    #4. Timing and execution: Depending on the instrument you trade you need to tune your position sizing and exits. You need consistent signaling for entries and exits and should trade using level II based Market Orders. Works well for leveraged markets.

    ie. For ES: try backtesting steps at
    Add @ 3,6,9,12,15,18 ticks from average cost.
    Exit @ 2,3,4,5,6,7 ticks from average cost.

    When you are being drawn down loading up on contracts the tendancy is to take a few points and be done. Hedging provides insurance to let the larger positions run.

    Take small profits on small positions and let the larger hedged positions run a bit wider. 3 - 6 tick trail...

    This style of Trading should only be autotraded against a fully executable price feed (Level II depth).

    Good Luck...
     
    #96     Jul 26, 2008
  7. ifl
     
    #97     Jul 27, 2008
  8. Please share with us how you do this.
     
    #98     Jul 27, 2008