Bull Trapping Part II or Sell the Bounce

Discussion in 'Trading' started by duard, Jun 4, 2006.

  1. duard


    By most intents and measures it looks as though next week is setting up as "Bull Trapping Part II or Sell the Bounce."

    The press is setting the stage with:

    Economy May Be Heading for Less Sunny Days
    Sunday June 4, 12:38 pm ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    Economy May Be Heading for Less Sunny Days After Growing at Strong Pace at Beginning of Year


    Oil Jitters May Spell Trouble for Wall St.
    Sunday June 4, 3:11 pm ET
    By Christopher Wang, AP Business Writer
    Turbulence in Energy Market May Make for Bumpier Ride on Wall Street
  2. You are being selective in picking headlines to prove a point.

    DOW to 12,000
  3. duard


    Perhaps but the spoos on globex are down 2 pts since the post.
  4. too much doom-and-gloom.

    screw dow 12000 - i'm calling dow 12500 by the end of the year.

    the fed will raise again, and then they are done - we just killed two birds with one stone:

    - we needed a correction after the run-up in commodities, and
    - the market's overcorrection was, in my opinion, a price-in for the next fed rate hike, so that when they decide to hike, instead of a loud sucking sound we'll get a nice pop because the market knows the fed will be done.

    keep in mind opinions are like assholes: everybody has one.


  5. duard


    Well the bulls were led to the abattoir.

    Question now is do we hold our prior lows?

    We had a heavy down day but are in a comfortable range. Doubtful we break support at 1245-1250 in the SPOOS. Too far too fast with major support 20 points away.
  6. duard


    VIX sure looks like it bottomed as outlined in the volatility thread. Bernanke ADMITS to both inflation and a slowing economy. Seems like macro wise we get flight to safety a continued sell-off in the more speculative markets. The question is:

    Is the top in SIF's in for awhile. If so how long?

    Where to park your dough --- Short term bond ladders, energy, corn? Metals on a pullback? Which metals?

    Food for thought. My short-term trading changes very little but there is a shuffle going on and has been for awhile as money flows in and out of various markets. The BOJ theory of liquidity is interesting as is the FED's own measure of liquidity. How can we forestall a recession?

    In the words of a kind friend ---"You think too much." Whatever.
  7. duard


    As suggested 1245-1250 held. I think 1245 should hold for the week, but we'll soon see what the rest of the week brings us.

  8. duard


    Wrong and almost wrong.

    No sooner did we break the sanctity of the 1245 mark (in the SP500 index) and buyers REVERSED the intraday rout. Relatively uncommon in occurence and magnitude. Yes 1238 was another close proximity heavy support line but what was interesting was the valor of the reversal.

    I would say after today's performance that the VIX is definitely back.
  9. duard


    If we don't rally from here that would mean many will have accepted the reality that:

    Registered: Jan 2005
    Posts: 797
    04-30-06 01:45 AM

    Volatility has expanded recently with an increase in the average true range....

    this represents the beginning of a new phase of market development? .....

    Sitting on a ledge. Blood in many holdings. Not looking good for some accounts. Margin calls.

  10. As always in the markets, nobody is right.

    Doubtful we'll go to 10,000 or 12,000 this year.

    And if we end up at either, it's going to be after a solid head fake in the opposite direction. Why not just trade a strategy that doesn't allow you to get shaken off in either case.

    *ahem* The Logical Trader by Marc Fisher.
    #10     Jun 12, 2006